I was involved in a panel discussion about defence expenditure this week. A trade union activist I greatly respect justified his argument against providing military aid to Ukraine by invoking a Putin-propagated myth. The essence of this conspiracy theory is that Boris Johnson thwarted efforts to achieve a negotiated peace in April 2022. There are few politicians that I have more contempt for than Boris Johnson, so I can understand how anyone can believe such a thing was possible. My surprise was that this myth has not only been debunked in mainstream fact-checks but also in left-wing media sources like Novara Media. The Kremlin and their useful idiots propagate it in a few media sources.
Let’s start by remembering that these events happened after the Russian invasion and the initial discovery of Russian war crimes, including the Bucha massacre. It was also after Russian State media, with the explicit support of the regime, including Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of the Security Council of Russia, published the genocidal statement ‘What Russia Should do with Ukraine’. The author argues that Ukraine's existence is "impossible" as a nation-state, and after the war, forced labour, imprisonment, and the death penalty would be used as punishment. None of this sounds like a country seriously interested in peace.
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| https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/21/ukraine-russian-forces-trail-death-bucha |
And they weren’t even close, as objective analysts closer to the talks confirmed. While the negotiators agreed upon some broad principles, as anyone with negotiating experience knows, deciding on principles is much easier than agreeing on the details.
These details included a Russian demand that Ukraine cap its armed forces at 85,000 troops, 342 tanks and 519 artillery pieces, which would be around a 60-70 per cent reduction of Ukraine’s military strength. Ukraine was understandably sceptical about signing away its capacity to defend itself, given that it had just been invaded by Russia weeks beforehand. And given Putin’s track record on keeping agreements, feared this would be a temporary pause to reorganise and launch another, better-prepared invasion. The Russian initial plan was disintegrating at this time, and Putin needed a breather.
The other essential requirement was not NATO membership, which wouldn’t happen, but rather that undefined Western nations would provide security guarantees but with no bases in Ukraine. It was this that Boris Johnson rightly pointed out was unrealistic. Few, if any, European countries would give such a guarantee outside the NATO military alliance. The Russians could sweep across Ukraine and sit on the Moldavian, Hungarian and Polish borders. That would require a massive offensive to dislodge the Russians who would dig in, as they have in eastern Ukraine. There is neither the capacity nor the political will to do that. Anyone with a rudimentary grasp of history will grasp that Putin is using the Hitler Czechoslovakia playbook.
In simple terms, no credible deal was on the table, so the only option was to fight on. A decision overwhelmingly supported by Ukrainians in polling after the Bucha massacre. Ukrainians understand this is not a manageable conflict in which you can exchange a bit of land for peace. Putin wants nothing less than the obliteration of Ukraine. They are the frontline against the new fascist menace, and the West should support them and prepare for the worst if they fail. There is a respectful exchange of left-wing positions on the war in the Scottish Left Review.
I fully appreciate the desire for peace and the opposition to less than productive defence spending. I just come from a different left-wing political tradition. The most important influence on my teenage political thought was a former Welsh miner who fought in Spain against fascism. He would have recognised Putin as he did Hitler and understood that appeasement is a strategy doomed to failure.