I participated in a European foundation workshop last week, which examined the impact of a Trump presidency on Europe. While European leaders politely congratulated Trump and emphasised long-standing links, the policy community is less sanguine.
As you might expect, there was a lot of emphasis on the need for Europe to be less dependent on the USA. However, other strains of thought saw developments within Europe, making it more challenging to develop a coherent European response. When Trump was last in power, he faced a reasonably united Europe led by centrist moderates. Today, Europe has its own populist leaders who have a deep-seated scepticism of the EU and a desire to erode it from within. Many of these leaders also welcome Trump's return, although wary of his policies, particularly trade tariffs and the consequent dumping of China's overproduction on Europe. Add to that the political uncertainty in France and Germany, and Europe looks anything but united.
Despite Brexit, the EU remains Britain’s biggest trading partner, representing about 40% of UK exports. However, the US is the UK’s largest trading partner as an individual country, accounting for about a fifth of all exports and worth more than £190 billion a year. If it's an either/or, re-establishing ties with the EU is in Britain’s financial interest. Neither option is good news for the Chancellor's growth strategy.
My presentation was on the implications for defence. A Trump presidency means Europe and NATO must get serious about their defence. European defence policy has traditionally been heavily reliant on US support, without it NATO will be diminished, While there are some traditional Republican policy voices in his cabinet picks, we also have Pete Hegseth running the Pentagon and Tulsi Gabbard at national intelligence. Having a Putin apologist within the Five Eyes intelligence alliance is a frightening prospect, particularly for Ukraine, which could lose funding and the vital intelligence assets, mainly high-end satellites, that are essential to its defence.
The following two months could be critical for Ukraine as Russia intensifies its offensives to strengthen its bargaining position. Biden's missile decision helps Ukraine, but it's not a silver bullet. Trump's buffer zone plan is doomed to failure, as the UN peacekeepers in Lebanon would tell you. Putin will simply use the time to regroup before his next aggression. Front-line European countries identified this more than others at the workshop.
The silver lining is that it could galvanise the UK and the EU enough to take action on UK-EU security and defence cooperation. Germany, in particular, needs to develop a new defence policy with funding to match, ending reliance on the USA for protection and supporting Ukraine. To date, the average German military support for Ukraine represents approximately 0.1% of Germany's GDP annually. According to projections by the Kiel Institute, ceasing support for Ukraine could lead to costs ranging from 1% to 2% of annual GDP over the next five years.
Britain also needs a new defence strategy to end the myth that we can do everything. The British Army cannot deploy a whole division for combat. The Royal Air Force struggles to defend its airfields, especially against missile attacks, and the Royal Navy lacks enough crew for its remaining ships. In a sustained Ukraine-style conflict, our ammunition supplies would quickly run out. We should not forget that the so-called independent nuclear deterrent almost entirely relies on US technology. These were highlighted in a House of Commons Defence Committee report, and the new UK Government is developing a new strategic defence review.
Since the Second World War, Britain has acted as a supporting player to the US, pursuing global goals without the means to sustain them. The last government's 'tilt to the Pacific' and 'Global Britain' rhetoric was just the latest iteration of this delusion. As Frank Ledwig put it recently, "The UK must decide: is it a global power or a regional force in the Euro-Atlantic area? It cannot be both."