tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89583112315204050272024-03-16T01:13:07.567+00:00Dave WatsonDave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.comBlogger941125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-14991154118737966732024-03-09T14:40:00.001+00:002024-03-09T14:40:34.102+00:00Defence in an Independent Scotland<p>The Scottish Government has published the latest policy paper in its <i>Building a New Scotland</i> series, An Independent Scotland’s Place in the World. This <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/building-new-scotland-independent-scotlands-place-world/" target="_blank">paper</a> sets out its vision for an independent Scotland's foreign, defence, and security policy. If you don’t fancy reading the whole paper, SPICe has done a good job of <a href="https://spice-spotlight.scot/2024/03/04/defence-and-foreign-policy-in-an-independent-scotland-the-scottish-governments-proposals-for-scotlands-place-in-the-world/" target="_blank">summarising</a> the key points.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6DdgsNIP_5H_HqhQ8xo4ZFrHKQ6fX5AbsTC2Lm95_uH5yQPmilSCOg-tI-XCGNckXIKb4a9a7niyHxVBGO-P1Lsf_xuqlJMyCALURKM76qSj3zhZx16lXUSwnV-Doqe_EQsxyz3xghFX_cHfaoajpJjW1J-VAEhh7W9bZtUHYOqnrVN0_6TSdS0MrO0c-/s2620/Screenshot%202024-03-09%20at%2014.21.45.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1508" data-original-width="2620" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6DdgsNIP_5H_HqhQ8xo4ZFrHKQ6fX5AbsTC2Lm95_uH5yQPmilSCOg-tI-XCGNckXIKb4a9a7niyHxVBGO-P1Lsf_xuqlJMyCALURKM76qSj3zhZx16lXUSwnV-Doqe_EQsxyz3xghFX_cHfaoajpJjW1J-VAEhh7W9bZtUHYOqnrVN0_6TSdS0MrO0c-/s320/Screenshot%202024-03-09%20at%2014.21.45.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>In the defence section defence, the key proposals include:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Joining NATO and keeping defence spending at 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).</li><li>Working with neighbouring members in defence of the North Atlantic and High North region, with a likely focus on the strategically important Greenland–Iceland–UK (GIUK) Gap.</li><li>Provide conventional forces to NATO operations in support of Treaty objectives and participate in joint exercises. However, these would need to be in accordance with the United Nations Charter.</li><li>Scotland’s Joint Forces Headquarters would be based at Faslane. </li><li>Working with the UK for a transitional period and a timetable for UK forces to gradually draw down their presence in Scotland.</li><li>Nuclear weapons should be removed from Scotland in the safest and most expeditious manner possible following independence.</li></ul><p></p><p>The media headlines predictably focused on removing nuclear weapons and the impact this might have on joining NATO. The Scottish Government reasonably points out that “<i>only a minority of NATO members host nuclear weapons.</i>” I doubt the so-called British independent deterrent <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24162014.angus-robertson-removing-trident-indy-not-embolden-putin/" target="_blank">worries Putin</a> much, given that it relies on US missiles and has anyway <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/21/labour-seeks-trident-assurances-after-missile-test-anomaly" target="_blank">failed</a> its last two tests. However, the timetable for removing nuclear weapons looks optimistic. NATO partners must cooperate, and there is some <a href="https://x.com/geoallison/status/1764642261508259947?s=20" target="_blank">evidence</a> that the US, in particular, might veto Scotland's application if we disagreed on a reasonable timetable. NATO is, after all, a nuclear alliance, and even non-nuclear armed states can carry battlefield nuclear weapons. </p><p>While I think NATO would eventually welcome Scotland, the idea that we would be essential to protecting the northern flank is fanciful. NATO can do everything from bases in Norway and Iceland. Scotland would add to that, but it's not vital.</p><p>My problem with the paper is more with the conventional defence plans, or the lack of them, and the absence of any costings. The paper ignores the practical challenges Scotland would face when establishing a conventional army, navy and air force. These challenges include:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>I have previously <a href="http://unisondave.blogspot.com/2024/01/tough-political-decisions.html" target="_blank">highlighted</a> the absence of any recognition of the defence industry in the First Minister's speech on industrial policy. UK ships and other defence equipment will be built in UK sites (the paper is frankly <a href="https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/would-uk-naval-shipbuilding-continue-in-scotland-if-left-the-uk/" target="_blank">delusional</a> to argue otherwise), and Scotland cannot provide a similar pipeline of work. There is also the issue of access to sensitive electronic equipment, which is crucial to modern armed forces. Some people, opposed to the defence industry in principle, may not regard the loss of a defence industry as a big loss. However, it certainly will be to the 33,500 workers and their families at a time when the post-Indy Scottish economy will face many other challenges. The defence sector contributes £3.2 billion to the Scottish economy.</li><li>The infrastructure and support contracts that keep defence equipment running are linked to the defence sector. Ships need regular refits, aircraft need specialists to keep them running, and a substantial Ministry of Defence to pull all of this together. Scotland will also need munitions stores and specialists to maintain them.</li><li>Ensuring Scotland retains the skilled personnel required to run modern defence forces. At best, Scotland will inherit a random collection of transferring service personnel rather than a coherent military force. </li><li>Those gaps would need to be filled by a training programme. That would be a long and complex process with new officer and technical training establishments to be established with none of the economies of scale the UK brings.</li><li>The UK will be unlikely to share intelligence with an independent Scotland. Given the approvals required for the most sensitive equipment and software, it will take many years to build up the necessary systems, if at all. </li></ul><p></p><p>None of the above are impossible to deliver, albeit with costly investment. My concern is that there is no evidence from this paper that any serious thought has been given to the detail. As others have <a href="https://thinpinstripedline.blogspot.com/2024/03/analysis-of-proposals-for-defence-in.html" target="_blank">pointed out,</a> it reads like “<i>some of the pro-Brexit material at the time of the referendum – trying to reassure people that nothing will really change, all will be well and frankly we’re better off without that lot anyway.”</i></p><p>This paper is a political gloss that has rightly not impressed those who understand the defence sector. If the Scottish Government is serious about defending an independent Scotland, it needs to get serious about planning for it.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-14639487851813207012024-02-07T17:54:00.000+00:002024-02-07T17:54:29.342+00:00Defence and security in an uncertain world<p>Everyone is suddenly talking about defence. Britain’s Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68086188" target="_blank">discussed </a>a ‘citizen’s army’. This has sparked nostalgia for National Service in some quarters (which Sanders rejected) and a more serious debate about defence spending in an uncertain world elsewhere. The prospect of a Trump presidency <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/what-another-trump-presidency-would-mean-for-nato/#:~:text=Later%2C%20Trump%20informed%20European%20Commission,%2C%20we%20will%20quit%20NATO.”" target="_blank">adds fuel</a> to the discussion in Europe.</p><p>This week, I participated in a research workshop for a European client, building on a <a href="http://unisondave.blogspot.com/2023/07/defence-strategy-refresh.html" target="_blank">briefing note</a> I wrote for them last year. I also presented on international defence procurement policy based on a paper I wrote for Prospect. I always find these discussions fascinating, as getting the countries' perspectives directly is much more helpful.</p><p>Colleagues in Poland, Estonia, Sweden and Finland have a genuine focus on the Russian threat, not to mention Putin’s not-so-little helper in Belarus. Other countries are also focused on what is happening in the Red Sea and Gaza, with the associated military and economic impact. With Pakistan and Iran kicking off as well, the Middle East risks a broader conflict, with ten countries now caught up in the fighting. For the first time, a Turkish colleague joined us, bringing another perspective to the discussion. He was more optimistic that the various players in the Middle East could reach a deal which would get the region back from the brink. Others were more sceptical that the Israeli Government would move on freezing settlements on the West Bank, an essential part of any long-term peace deal.</p><p>I pointed out that Britain’s defence spending is inflated by the fifth of the defence budget spent on nuclear weapons. If you take nuclear out of the equation, defence spending is about 1.75% of GDP, around the middle of the European league table. This means that the armed forces are struggling to keep existing equipment running. Even the Royal Navy, seen as a gainer in recent spending rounds, must decommission ships because it doesn’t have enough sailors. The Army is in even bigger trouble. When the Tories came to power in 2010, the British Army was over 100,000-strong. It is now due to fall to 72,500. Chatter about a ‘citizen’s army’ is not going to plug that gap anytime soon, and neither is the much-vaunted technology. As the <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/02/01/how-to-fix-british-defence?utm_content=ed-picks-article-link-1&etear=defence_nl_1&utm_campaign=r.defence-newsletter&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2/5/2024&utm_id=1850006" target="_blank">Economist’s</a> defence editor puts it, <i>‘Far too often, penny-pinching and short-termism have resulted in Britain buying high-end kit and then economising on the things that make it work properly.’</i></p><p>I was asked what a Labour Government might do – a frankly perilous speculation these days! I am impressed with Labour’s defence team’s approach, which appears to have a good grasp of the issues, including the need for procurement reform. The problem is that Rachel Reeves seems no more likely to challenge the Treasury’s short-termism, given her spending caution. Delaying expensive projects is a well-travelled Treasury route to balance the books. While Labour is comfortably ahead in the polls on most issues, they trail the Tories on defence and security by four points (<a href="https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/defence-and-security" target="_blank">YouGov poll </a>below), although the gap is narrowing. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9sv-XAzqKcyxEw78Dr3G7juei5bKbAA_OiXOU2WHdprXTh1WCDtrGc22jxkjIZX8TrgqL-L0Dlx2UH6ksB7T6jDFfjXXzizoz-oPazET6Hk5OAxNaK24sA2GLE_22h-3n1OSc1XpdFDvzuXM2vVYabzo2nOzX7qv4TIQ0wsA0GSE7D8BtRm9wBXnOlRBt/s2494/Screenshot%202024-02-07%20at%2017.33.55.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1226" data-original-width="2494" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9sv-XAzqKcyxEw78Dr3G7juei5bKbAA_OiXOU2WHdprXTh1WCDtrGc22jxkjIZX8TrgqL-L0Dlx2UH6ksB7T6jDFfjXXzizoz-oPazET6Hk5OAxNaK24sA2GLE_22h-3n1OSc1XpdFDvzuXM2vVYabzo2nOzX7qv4TIQ0wsA0GSE7D8BtRm9wBXnOlRBt/w640-h314/Screenshot%202024-02-07%20at%2017.33.55.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>I suspect this reflects a traditional view that Labour is not strong on defence. In an uncertain world, this is something Labour cannot afford to be weak on. If European security worsens later this year, the risk is that voters may put this issue at the top of their list of concerns. James Rose has <a href="https://labourlist.org/2024/02/labour-party-policy-manifesto-defence-polling-ukraine-nato/" target="_blank">pitched</a> a package of policy ideas to help Labour seize the agenda on defence that I largely agree with. These include replacing the weapons sent to Ukraine and reversing Tory cuts, laced with more traditional Labour policies on support for veterans and ending failed outsourcing. To this, I would add the proposals in my paper for Prospect on defence procurement, a concern <a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmdfence/1099/report.html" target="_blank">reinforced</a> by the Westminster Defence Committee. This package would also have economic spin-offs and would be welcomed by the defence trade unions.</p><p>There is an adage that it is the first responsibility of government in a democratic society to protect and safeguard the lives of its citizens. Labour’s leadership would do well to remember that.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-8692608728334386622024-01-08T17:56:00.000+00:002024-01-08T17:56:11.748+00:00Tough political decisions<p> It could be a long political year if today's election pitches are anything to go by. </p><p>Anas Sarwar was making a pitch to Yes voters in Rutherglen. It is a smart move given that despite the SNP's woes, the dial has barely moved on support for independence. However, a call for change alone may not be enough to firm up these voters for Labour. Anas needs to think further about what a serious offer on the constitution might look like to shift these voters at the UK General Election and, equally important, for the next Holyrood election if he wants to be First Minister. Lending votes to get rid of the Tories is only a short-term strategy.</p><p>I was at the University of Glasgow today, listening to the First Minister set out what an industrial strategy might look like post-independence. The media spin was more about the increase in household income independence might bring. This reinforces the recent soundbite script from SNP MPs, which puts the cost of living crisis before constitutional change. This reflects where the voters are, even if less popular with some activists. He further reminded some of those activists that Yes supporters should not simply shout "independence ever louder" but help set out an "alternative path: one that leads to a renewed sense of possibility”.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmj5AzjxvUReZBKslCVX2uOYlrSBp8UfP-ff__9ZFD-0HMdh85pnC4T1qXmT3P_mpzu9nhWuDHQeXGqkgxgwnDzG86-qsU9XWUbsuPfJEgbS0EbSB5J2fAB8i5-LSIyIghlN1b5YfSNlXlMxZtmDS3V76O4vakTdynnfGxid_OWVczrLSPHbArktG2GtVw/s2388/IMG_3129.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1510" data-original-width="2388" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmj5AzjxvUReZBKslCVX2uOYlrSBp8UfP-ff__9ZFD-0HMdh85pnC4T1qXmT3P_mpzu9nhWuDHQeXGqkgxgwnDzG86-qsU9XWUbsuPfJEgbS0EbSB5J2fAB8i5-LSIyIghlN1b5YfSNlXlMxZtmDS3V76O4vakTdynnfGxid_OWVczrLSPHbArktG2GtVw/s320/IMG_3129.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>I was less interested in the political guff than what he had to say about industrial strategy, something grossly neglected in Scotland and the UK. Other small European countries have successful industrial strategies that have helped raise living standards. However, this didn't magically happen because they are independent; it resulted from a positive strategy.</p><p>There was a predictable and essentially correct analysis of the failings of the UK Government over many years. He argues it isn't a short-term crisis but the result of long-term failure, ‘creating a poor society with pockets of rich people’. His challenge to Labour is how they would change this given Keir Starmer’s cautious policy approach to the Green New Deal.</p><p>He proposed three pillars to an industrial strategy: joining the EU, a new ministry for industrial policy, joining up action across government, and public investment. He highlighted the success of public investment worldwide to 'crowd-in' private investment, particularly in the USA and China, with an albeit more modest response from the EU. It is less clear how an independent Scotland would develop the fiscal and monetary policy to finance a similar approach. He also highlighted EU strategies on CCS and hydrogen, which Scotland is well placed to contribute.</p><p>A crucial industry for Scotland is shipbuilding, although the FM didn't mention it in his long list of successful Scottish industries. Probably because on the civil side, the problems of ferry building have not helped the sector, with ships now being built in Türkiye. There should be opportunities for support ships in the renewables sector, but turning renewable energy prospects into supply chain jobs has been challenging.</p><p>Defence spending remains a vital part of the Scottish economy, providing 33,500 jobs and contributing £3.2 billion to the Scottish economy. It also provides high-wage jobs that provide income tax revenue, as Graeme Roy highlighted in the <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24031583.scottish-government-income-tax-policy---key-numbers/" target="_blank">Herald</a> today. Each percentage point of earnings growth in Scotland delivers around £25m more revenue than would be generated by the equivalent UK tax policy. </p><p>For Scotland, a big chunk of defence investment and employment comes from naval shipbuilding on the Clyde and at Rosyth. The FM needs to clarify if an independent Scotland would pursue a Scotland First procurement strategy that considers the <a href="http://unisondave.blogspot.com/2023/04/effective-defence-procurement.html" target="_blank">social value</a> of procurement. The UK government has drifted away from this by awarding the Fleet Solid Ships contract to an overseas consortium. The more difficult question is how defence spending in an independent Scotland will sustain our defence shipbuilding industry. Some 24 warships will likely be built in Scotland between 2015 and 2035. It is hard to see how a Scottish Navy will need more than a handful of warships. Exports will be challenging given the global move to favour home-built procurement, or at least substantial offset, which Scotland may find challenging to offer.</p><p>Few would disagree with the ambition and vision the First Minister set out to achieve an industrial strategy that normal countries follow. However, the transition to a high-growth, low-inequality country is a long-term process that will require actions on a scale that will be challenging. In fairness, the FM didn't claim it would be achieved overnight, but his industrial strategy needs more detail and has to address difficult issues like shipbuilding. He and Anas Sarwar would be more credible if they faced up to the complex political issues.</p><p><br /></p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-91920521803053164212023-12-19T18:13:00.000+00:002023-12-19T18:13:44.025+00:00Scottish Budget 2024-25<p> There were no big surprises in the draft Scottish Budget <a href="https://www.gov.scot/news/2024-25-scottish-budget-unveiled/" target="_blank">published</a> today. I set out the background to the Budget in a <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/2023/12/scottish-budget-2024-25/" target="_blank">briefing</a> for the Jimmy Reid Foundation, and it was always going to be challenging given the economic environment and the appalling UK Autumn Statement. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwV35EC_QnT9Rcid2yDy5pl8VrDIrCcTMXJUAwfis7do_v0Ib8WmxjkYIBTDlJqIi-hZRvHEgZL4i4y0h1qGvBj04G294EQzifYdrO37e0FsW5qlDivT6HulztiN41TUmIC_OngUhzJudVGx62X-Q68n1EoHB44mP7-Ll_CoJua1awqjGJgUsiJarNEbnI/s1478/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2017.20.01.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1472" data-original-width="1478" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwV35EC_QnT9Rcid2yDy5pl8VrDIrCcTMXJUAwfis7do_v0Ib8WmxjkYIBTDlJqIi-hZRvHEgZL4i4y0h1qGvBj04G294EQzifYdrO37e0FsW5qlDivT6HulztiN41TUmIC_OngUhzJudVGx62X-Q68n1EoHB44mP7-Ll_CoJua1awqjGJgUsiJarNEbnI/s320/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2017.20.01.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>There was little cash to spread very thinly. The NHS and social care budget predictably got the lion's share, although even that is well below what it needs. Within that budget section, social care did best, which is the right priority given the impact of delayed discharge on our hospitals. However, welcome though £12 per hour is for workers, it is unlikely to bring significant numbers of new staff into the sector. We need £15 per hour, and we need it quickly, along with funding for sick pay. Mental health, drug, and alcohol services are going to have a difficult year.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj90u_5RVYbDtdWqNreW_OB-5-pukt8mIE-zWUUHWISyCQOjyjp52yGfWG6dpCaItFKCHWQTpUvpA9BFRJ8jYW1GU6J42YdCFU5Cwm6dHQ-gM0gfk_Ejb3BmTBzGodf63OniymJ8Fo2Dwup3WDj8WhdtvTHjbnxkqIUtw2AvYrcVpxSlkdCYfSvDMjJqQuy/s1960/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2016.23.29.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1770" data-original-width="1960" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj90u_5RVYbDtdWqNreW_OB-5-pukt8mIE-zWUUHWISyCQOjyjp52yGfWG6dpCaItFKCHWQTpUvpA9BFRJ8jYW1GU6J42YdCFU5Cwm6dHQ-gM0gfk_Ejb3BmTBzGodf63OniymJ8Fo2Dwup3WDj8WhdtvTHjbnxkqIUtw2AvYrcVpxSlkdCYfSvDMjJqQuy/w400-h361/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2016.23.29.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">NHS staffing will remain a big problem in the coming year, as growth in staff numbers is likely to continue falling behind the rest of the UK. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSNI-JkKPcDK90u8pJcRj2v27238lCmpX897THgJh4kLrQY5jZBDYiFXqkVrTgxWBi0p7ntC6xp-0GEkccxnD_JpZcEH_5r_YC3DHREAtdi2zS_gmzkfPYEGWpIlyOpwNlTVURmGyw4SuL0_LidNR1YfkkBFPGzmFENt5kysn92Fw0jrQtJ80rlOv982E2/s1894/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2010.29.15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1398" data-original-width="1894" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSNI-JkKPcDK90u8pJcRj2v27238lCmpX897THgJh4kLrQY5jZBDYiFXqkVrTgxWBi0p7ntC6xp-0GEkccxnD_JpZcEH_5r_YC3DHREAtdi2zS_gmzkfPYEGWpIlyOpwNlTVURmGyw4SuL0_LidNR1YfkkBFPGzmFENt5kysn92Fw0jrQtJ80rlOv982E2/s320/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2010.29.15.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The Scottish Child Payment is at least being uprated but short of where many organisations felt it should be to maintain progress on tackling child poverty. As the Scottish Fiscal Commission's (SFC) report shows, Social Security payments with no equivalent in the Block Grant are the biggest additional cost to the Scottish Budget.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW4y8wNz-d5KWWltJ18IsdvEgXo_pIkQvzT-nFv6-F3XMNoRgQK6FsyRAgf_-ca_mFmrrzJP-XAaKb2iHypHg0N0r94wUn_kApMxeeuGgXNVw5hqKXcQazPvGQPYCoM4CjGjseJpXlsCjLjfxDzVnvqiPU0TzHutn7j_oqvnJoc15JXqo5SfOH1A_mtFqq/s1608/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2015.56.48.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="1608" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW4y8wNz-d5KWWltJ18IsdvEgXo_pIkQvzT-nFv6-F3XMNoRgQK6FsyRAgf_-ca_mFmrrzJP-XAaKb2iHypHg0N0r94wUn_kApMxeeuGgXNVw5hqKXcQazPvGQPYCoM4CjGjseJpXlsCjLjfxDzVnvqiPU0TzHutn7j_oqvnJoc15JXqo5SfOH1A_mtFqq/w400-h136/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2015.56.48.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>On income, changes to Income Tax are a welcome progressive change to the banding structure. Again, the Deputy First Minister was urged to go further on tax reform by a coalition of over 60 organisations in a <a href="https://oxfamapps.org/scotland/2023/12/18/all-parties-must-work-towards-fair-tax-reforms/" target="_blank">letter</a> I signed on behalf of the Reid Foundation. Tackling Scotland's key challenges requires long-term thinking rather than more sticking plasters. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimgmGfqUMw-LPkIjbV6pTfbgu8XhX0nurEIul3tbPj8zG3DfDGjCRgPm60CtilIVfD1ObjHP6SdQKFrXl-DvJr4lTtevCTFEu7T91Y9uJlrfiguqNLdgz_TbZBTtw5HtjXc7oRPxWe47MOnBBk5dUsFAOf4_rjcGLwH96vzsyVVtaGIUKmKY6953sgK9MI/s1670/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2015.39.20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="1670" height="153" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimgmGfqUMw-LPkIjbV6pTfbgu8XhX0nurEIul3tbPj8zG3DfDGjCRgPm60CtilIVfD1ObjHP6SdQKFrXl-DvJr4lTtevCTFEu7T91Y9uJlrfiguqNLdgz_TbZBTtw5HtjXc7oRPxWe47MOnBBk5dUsFAOf4_rjcGLwH96vzsyVVtaGIUKmKY6953sgK9MI/w400-h153/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2015.39.20.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>There is also a shocking lack of consistency. Progressive Income Tax changes must be contrasted with the regressive Council Tax <a href="http://unisondave.blogspot.com/2023/10/why-another-council-tax-freeze-is-wrong.html" target="_blank">freeze</a>. If fully funded, the resources could be better targeted to support public services and the cost of living crisis. This chart from the recent FoA budget report is a reminder of falling real terms local government spending, particularly on non-statutory services, over the last decade.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7WWVMvH3OHb1fo_DvKegf2BufA8_JtbKqU7ZkQua5R__vPacm-s_DQI6ba80Svi4nlJxMzriikG_0wUKGncamoz0aB9-yCAOIKJmusz-ddbJRWHu0KejZSNccUfvaIZDpFuIjQl9EEysiJV-X1DX3lzoEdYESPg4fOeyGY3mPwPHw9uzUgGlaxg6tw4lr/s1894/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2010.35.24.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1364" data-original-width="1894" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7WWVMvH3OHb1fo_DvKegf2BufA8_JtbKqU7ZkQua5R__vPacm-s_DQI6ba80Svi4nlJxMzriikG_0wUKGncamoz0aB9-yCAOIKJmusz-ddbJRWHu0KejZSNccUfvaIZDpFuIjQl9EEysiJV-X1DX3lzoEdYESPg4fOeyGY3mPwPHw9uzUgGlaxg6tw4lr/w400-h288/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2010.35.24.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>As with the UK Budget, I am more interested in the Scottish Fiscal Commission report, which gives a longer-term perspective. Their fiscal forecast is summarised in this chart. Revenue will be up 8% by 2028/9, but capital will be down by 20%. Our crumbling infrastructure is about to crumble some more! The Scottish Government is heading towards the capital borrowing cap, strengthening the case for the same prudential borrowing powers as local government.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie9u7ykhao5LPoHYFWDJo9koyhwyhDbCJi_Vt-aO0Em0Qk3kr6-keXPGDNXAFF9XJHcVQy2DSeYnLrhFkMUj9PXXCpPFt0kjwwCH0-Gpc2tdH9mdnEJwTFKanrfSb7mDN5pYmCZL_76GhSSSAWT14kMYExiOCGJekavwWBZX_eYcICELGNj8or0042ltEO/s1716/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2015.31.17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1146" data-original-width="1716" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie9u7ykhao5LPoHYFWDJo9koyhwyhDbCJi_Vt-aO0Em0Qk3kr6-keXPGDNXAFF9XJHcVQy2DSeYnLrhFkMUj9PXXCpPFt0kjwwCH0-Gpc2tdH9mdnEJwTFKanrfSb7mDN5pYmCZL_76GhSSSAWT14kMYExiOCGJekavwWBZX_eYcICELGNj8or0042ltEO/w400-h268/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2015.31.17.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>The SFC also highlights the drop in living standards between 2021-22 and 2023-24 as the largest reduction since Scottish records began in 1998. They are unlikely to recover to 2021 levels until 2026. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKusYQ2VYtaJNcgDv87Od4LpJNrSfPb4eqpj6NAfvHMfg1jRJ74HUzo8BHDtGtxB_ZQgB5LuheohtOUEHVjjtVlAdwGTP_azWIA3x_WihvsfWEPmUE2iL9WfxphIUo16FGZQb06CkRYp_Pc129KcM14H3nUAk8b34AcD7gAnXE0-MAb5TYCpaR8cQbyFiV/s1630/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2015.48.01.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1102" data-original-width="1630" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKusYQ2VYtaJNcgDv87Od4LpJNrSfPb4eqpj6NAfvHMfg1jRJ74HUzo8BHDtGtxB_ZQgB5LuheohtOUEHVjjtVlAdwGTP_azWIA3x_WihvsfWEPmUE2iL9WfxphIUo16FGZQb06CkRYp_Pc129KcM14H3nUAk8b34AcD7gAnXE0-MAb5TYCpaR8cQbyFiV/w400-h270/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2015.48.01.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div>The SFC also assumes average devolved public sector pay growth of 4.5% in 2024-25. This includes an average basic pay award of 3.0% and pay progression and churn. They also forecast a fall in Scotland’s public sector employment from 2023-24 onwards. Overall, the SFC indicated slightly higher wage growth in Scotland than in the UK, plugging the current gap. Some sectors are doing better than others this year. <div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm4j8cakvG2ycHhJdcgkkHOpTaK9tWY7hPG7ui_VmZgabc4a6SqxND37YnxHux5ZggvRyOAOMh9cAlmKJj3zIA2y8uqbPzLV5lxWv4LioOiC3i9Bvbwy18pTP6pJWsMXTmvSXjFTYsG8eghAJCBE0dwdNH29wKQU503SoZYUJO9-Nl5efy_GUqiLYLjnOY/s1598/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2016.10.30.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1090" data-original-width="1598" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm4j8cakvG2ycHhJdcgkkHOpTaK9tWY7hPG7ui_VmZgabc4a6SqxND37YnxHux5ZggvRyOAOMh9cAlmKJj3zIA2y8uqbPzLV5lxWv4LioOiC3i9Bvbwy18pTP6pJWsMXTmvSXjFTYsG8eghAJCBE0dwdNH29wKQU503SoZYUJO9-Nl5efy_GUqiLYLjnOY/w400-h272/Screenshot%202023-12-19%20at%2016.10.30.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div>In conclusion, the report card would have to say, could do better. Some steps in the right direction with progressive income tax changes and spending priorities. However, that has to be balanced by only modest tax reform and limited support for alleviating child poverty, coupled with the absurd council tax freeze.<br /><div><p><br /></p></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-83578644843427857782023-12-04T16:05:00.006+00:002023-12-04T16:05:43.788+00:00Pharmanomics - How Big Pharma Destroys Global Health<p>If you read <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/en-gb/products/3036-pharmanomics" target="_blank">one book</a> this year about the economics of health, <i><b>Pharmanomics</b></i> by Nick Dearden should be it. The Director of Global Justice unpicks the way Big Pharma does business and rips us all off. This may not be unique in a capitalist society, but in the health sector, it costs countless lives. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHKnsuLO6mJR1FOWariq0MR70LMYmi4rZY9oS80lym04K3rywirMaWPZWDUexFbIxy2Yc2jinKcdhehvT7LHG0rl-xMYdDFcFZtFdK_oAicNGXd4DIDDDTyEerVVTgYINp9ZNXkPGYaAXfTJx2LRncy-t0Epq580Uy0Gk8mRweuV5Fy0_hgPWzemLx-XUU/s650/getimage_e34f4108-6ecd-49cf-83c9-86610b87e29e.jpg.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="357" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHKnsuLO6mJR1FOWariq0MR70LMYmi4rZY9oS80lym04K3rywirMaWPZWDUexFbIxy2Yc2jinKcdhehvT7LHG0rl-xMYdDFcFZtFdK_oAicNGXd4DIDDDTyEerVVTgYINp9ZNXkPGYaAXfTJx2LRncy-t0Epq580Uy0Gk8mRweuV5Fy0_hgPWzemLx-XUU/s320/getimage_e34f4108-6ecd-49cf-83c9-86610b87e29e.jpg.webp" width="176" /></a></div><p>The COVID pandemic started to open the eyes of governments to this particularly rapacious form of capitalism. As Nick puts it, ‘<i>They got to dictate who lived and who died in the most serious public health emergency in living memory</i>.’ They prolonged the pandemic and entrenched global inequality for a generation with a vaccine that was invented mainly using public money. Corporations like Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and Moderna – used taxpayer support to get the vaccines that bear their names ready. Then, they privatised the know-how behind these vital medicines and refused to share it with the many countries that could have joined the global manufacturing effort. Even AstraZeneca, whose Oxford vaccine was almost entirely funded by the public purse, turned what should have been a 'People's Vaccine' with an open license into an exclusive license, which prioritised rich countries. A practice they had undertaken before when they closed down early research into tuberculosis and malaria in favour of drugs for diseases affecting richer countries.</p><p>This book shows, page after page, how Big Pharma has been doing this for years. The patent system that underpins their profits delivers returns that manufacturing companies can only dream about. In the 1990s, Big Pharma discovered that their most significant asset wasn't research and development but intellectual property. So they lobbied in the USA and fought court battles to extend their patents and keep their data secret. This culminated in a trade deal known as TRIPS that enforced monopoly protection everywhere - described by one journalist as ‘<i>a brute and profoundly undemocratic expression of concentrated corporate power</i>.’ It is now a core part of the World Trade Organisation rules.</p><p>Examples include OxyContin, the drug behind the opioid addiction epidemic that has probably killed more than 300,000 people. You can watch how they encouraged overprescribing in the Netflix miniseries <i>Painkiller</i>. The drug generated $35bn for the company Purdue. They are now using the same discredited tactics to market opioids in China and other countries.</p><p>We are often told that these profits are essential to develop new drugs. However, Big Pharma does very little research into new medicines. They spend between five and eleven times more on advertising than on research. The drug is created by smaller companies, often funded by the public sector, and then bought out by a big drug company for the patents. They close down competitors and make small changes to drugs to extend patents. They are also one of the most financialised industries in our heavily financialised economy – stashing cash in tax havens to buy up companies and enrich shareholders. Medicine costs are entirely unrelated to research costs; they are hard-wired into the financialisation of the industry. As a Congressional investigator put it, <i>'The big Pharma fairy tale is one of ground-breaking R&D that justifies astronomical prices, but the pharma reality is that you spend most of your company's money for yourself and your shareholders.'</i></p><p>When you read the techniques that these companies use, it could drive you to despair. However, that is not the author's intent. He wants to open our minds to the possibility of change. We created the NHS, so why not the medicines they administer? <i>'If our healthcare is too important to be left to the market, then that must include the research and development of the medicines that keep us well.'</i> It would save the NHS billions in the inflated costs that drain NHS funds. The purchasing power of the NHS has resulted in some small progress in regulating costs compared to the USA. Needless to say, the drug companies are a big part of the lobby trying to privatise UK healthcare. </p><p>Governments need to stop being embarrassed about their role in the economy. There is a long list of technologies invented in the public sector whose ownership is transferred to the private sector and then rented back to us at enormous cost. We also need to reform the patent system to be shorter and more narrowly drawn. The pandemic and the profiteering of Big Pharma should be a wake-up call for governments in the Global North as much as it has been for the Global South. We should pressure governments to change.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-48398462943248467652023-11-20T18:13:00.000+00:002023-11-20T18:13:14.200+00:00Public service reform is not a quick fix in a crisis<p> The forthcoming Autumn Statement and Scottish Government Budget has inspired another round of calls for public service reform. Primarily wishful thinking as a substitute for public spending cuts, but the principle has merit.</p><p>The Chancellor appears to have some leeway in the Autumn Statement, although he wants to splash some of it on an Inheritance Tax cut that would benefit the wealthiest in society. This may shore up support for his boss on the back benches, but the politics are awful, particularly if it comes with benefits cuts for the most disadvantaged.</p><p>Audit Scotland has given a stark warning to the Scottish Government in its<a href="https://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/publications/the-202223-audit-of-the-scottish-government-consolidated-accounts" target="_blank"> annual audit</a> of their accounts;</p><p><i>“The delivery of public services in their current form is not affordable, with inflationary pressures and public sector pay settlements having a significant impact. The Scottish Government must work with partners to develop a programme of public service reform, including workforce redesign, which balances the short-term financial pressures with the need for longer-term change, recognising that this may require financial investment.”</i></p><p>The Auditor was not alone in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-67447590" target="_blank">highlighting</a> poor spending decisions. The <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23932143.ferguson-marine-public-cost-ferry-fiasco-firm-nearly-600m/" target="_blank">ferry fiasco</a> inevitably tops the list, with the latest final cost estimate approaching £600m. Then there is more than £50m on the BiFab fabrication yard, £52m on Prestwick Airport, £135m on the Lochaber smelter, up to £80m on the Rangers prosecution, and several IT projects. A less well-known example is the Shared Services Project. Many of us have been sceptical about the benefits of this approach in principle, but as predicted, costs have steadily risen. I'll believe the projected savings when they have been delivered!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6BLy5_vS7v0GzoNK8UvrDFd41ub3YEow2g4IbICga3T3ohFLguOQ4Z94PEf63pkZxAakV7YHl6t432QGG27gaK9roRmAAP0H85xQe3imcLtotWG7szNWSZb4Zl3AEO7IQXMQME2E3eyazvDkVZkcNzEeEnE2sbeONgw3OjS1yo0E-UVfUw-pjyPyxmn7T/s1884/Screenshot%202023-11-20%20at%2017.19.35.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1166" data-original-width="1884" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6BLy5_vS7v0GzoNK8UvrDFd41ub3YEow2g4IbICga3T3ohFLguOQ4Z94PEf63pkZxAakV7YHl6t432QGG27gaK9roRmAAP0H85xQe3imcLtotWG7szNWSZb4Zl3AEO7IQXMQME2E3eyazvDkVZkcNzEeEnE2sbeONgw3OjS1yo0E-UVfUw-pjyPyxmn7T/w400-h248/Screenshot%202023-11-20%20at%2017.19.35.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>While Tory MSPs regularly raise these issues in the Scottish parliament, they are less comfortable facing up to their own party’s record at Westminster. Nearly £100billion of taxpayers’ cash has been <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/fury-tories-waste-100bn-taxpayers-31473385" target="_blank">wasted</a>, an average of £25billion every year since the 2019 election. The Best for Britain group’s chief executive, Naomi Smith, said: <i>"The notion the Tories are safe with money has been blown out of the water. It's disgraceful the Government continues to squander public money while so many struggle to feed their families and heat their homes.”</i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy33a1VSWwjsnI1Ys5hPTzH4QNqCazOzJABo3Is_jUtQpdn8_UTf4gqs1eO4GwNhpifL06FcmAhOHrqH2DAe7lHTzaJOlV7w91Q3GkuRYh4pkfOe8IMKYR_TrLXsrA99n2eSGMEnCaghgd_hOuPLV19NlmKYxwMIC7FChKCe9znKoHyC6bQ4YHwE12tx_2/s640/Image-1-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="508" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy33a1VSWwjsnI1Ys5hPTzH4QNqCazOzJABo3Is_jUtQpdn8_UTf4gqs1eO4GwNhpifL06FcmAhOHrqH2DAe7lHTzaJOlV7w91Q3GkuRYh4pkfOe8IMKYR_TrLXsrA99n2eSGMEnCaghgd_hOuPLV19NlmKYxwMIC7FChKCe9znKoHyC6bQ4YHwE12tx_2/s320/Image-1-1.jpg" width="254" /></a></div><p>The Scottish Government frequently references the National Performance Framework. However, as the Auditor also highlighted in his report, <i>“I am concerned by the number of indicators not being reported five years after the first National Outcomes were agreed and it remains difficult to monitor the impact of policy and spending decisions on performance.” </i>This is common, with initiatives launched under a blaze of publicity, only to quietly be lost as ministers move on to the next shiny announcement. I highlighted some of this in my recent report on <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/2023/08/assessing-fair-work-in-scotland/" target="_blank">Fair Work</a>, and the Scottish Business Pledge is another good example of this process.</p><p>And before anyone tells me that the solution is private sector expertise. Let us remember that many of these projects involved private sector management consultants and big accountancy firms. Elon Musk has lost $41billion in just the last two weeks!</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQy1vcFBHmR-sCBh8-hXc2mLn5KrMUyGyDP-rmoqRQu8aymKSj4ZNL6T_UrC4KlxuEX8kOzYe3RK5S5lXLQ-9j7THyFbaMff0g7Z2MZSLPBB7Rxka8CO5OBpw6t9On73hbG2kOQIgWlQcT3ayTg3QL7FDwW0Sr_oKYIL_54hswawFgaZ-MxwwxkdUVfKN2/s1353/Image-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1353" data-original-width="1170" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQy1vcFBHmR-sCBh8-hXc2mLn5KrMUyGyDP-rmoqRQu8aymKSj4ZNL6T_UrC4KlxuEX8kOzYe3RK5S5lXLQ-9j7THyFbaMff0g7Z2MZSLPBB7Rxka8CO5OBpw6t9On73hbG2kOQIgWlQcT3ayTg3QL7FDwW0Sr_oKYIL_54hswawFgaZ-MxwwxkdUVfKN2/s320/Image-1.jpg" width="277" /></a></div><p>If we want to get serious about public service reform, let’s not forget that the template was set down by the <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/commission-future-delivery-public-services/" target="_blank">Christie Commission</a> 12 years ago. I was an expert advisor to that Commission, which showed how Scotland's public services require comprehensive reform by empowering communities, integrating service provision, preventing adverse social outcomes and becoming more efficient. The analysis in the report turned out to be pretty accurate. Sadly, too few of the recommendations have been implemented. </p><p>Five years after Christie, I wrote a <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/portfolio-2/public-service-reform/" target="_blank">paper</a> for the Reid Foundation on public service reform. This built on the Christie principles with a call to build integrated public services around recognisable communities, based on the principle of subsidiarity with service delivery at the lowest practical level. Proposals like shared services, the National Care Service and others show that the cult of centralisation still pervades government thinking. Preventative spending that could cut the demand costs on public services by up to 40% remains largely ignored. That report and Christie highlighted the importance of proper workforce planning and a staffing framework. This is a point again highlighted recently by Audit Scotland. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy95HIVXNDTbK3zNKYErguhWMDmVo5aYaQ63_6Kk5uuxYMY_phZMxApBGh5oBVkGwA89HHKTnn1SHO0wgpEOnac-fJu0GXNiALgScJJJ4UO1Q2aTLtFSBuQumUPo6q6xaQ4VHnI02di-8CjoUpZdmKGeYYLFR6akroeIiRVtByCVNi-mJuVr7nsWkIhVsv/s640/DW-Infographic-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="322" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy95HIVXNDTbK3zNKYErguhWMDmVo5aYaQ63_6Kk5uuxYMY_phZMxApBGh5oBVkGwA89HHKTnn1SHO0wgpEOnac-fJu0GXNiALgScJJJ4UO1Q2aTLtFSBuQumUPo6q6xaQ4VHnI02di-8CjoUpZdmKGeYYLFR6akroeIiRVtByCVNi-mJuVr7nsWkIhVsv/w201-h400/DW-Infographic-2.png" width="201" /></a></div><br /><p>Sadly, time and time again, these fundamental lessons are not learned. Public service reform is wheeled out as a solution during a financial crisis, just when the necessary investment is unavailable. There are only three years to go before I write my regular five-year blog on implementing the Christie Commission report. I suspect cut and paste will do the job yet again!</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-45001488683144989362023-10-18T11:31:00.000+01:002023-10-18T11:31:17.509+01:00Why another Council Tax freeze is wrong<p> Yesterday, the First Minister <a href="https://www.gov.scot/news/council-tax-frozen/#:~:text=Council%20tax%20rates%20will%20be,significant%20strain%20on%20household%20finances." target="_blank">announced</a> that the Scottish Government would freeze the Council Tax next year. While many will welcome any help with the cost of living crisis, this is the least effective way to provide that support. I thought my days of explaining why had ended, leading me to agree with Andy Wightman’s response, “<i>Dearie me. I thought we had finished with this nonsense</i>." This refers to the 'stop-gap' freeze that lasted nine years until 2017.</p><p>I get the politics of this. The SNP has just been hammered in a by-election in which the voters made it clear that the cost of living was their number one priority, not independence. Yet the conference coverage has been dominated by the debate on independence strategy. In that context, the focus of the First Minister's speech needed to be on the people's priorities, hence the big announcements on the Council Tax and NHS waiting times. Not consulting the Scottish Greens was also a helpful nod to the SNP's 'tail wagging the dog' faction.</p><p>So, what’s wrong with another Council Tax freeze?</p><p>The Scottish Green's had a few hours to respond, and Ross Greer correctly says, “<i>As we have repeatedly highlighted, council tax is a ludicrously broken system. It hasn’t been accurate since before I was born, with most people now paying the wrong rate as a result of those 1991 valuations</i>." Since the excellent 2006 Burt Report analysed the options, the story of Council Tax reform has been one sticking plaster after another. I have lost count of how many consultation submissions I have written since then. I am also old enough to remember when the SNP leadership agreed! Another sticking plaster when the Scottish Government is consulting on new proposals, however inadequate, appears to demonstrate policy-making on the hoof.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh771DEQEcBCzvjQWJTVm_zvMd2vaHwBjHoDlgaXBqL3K_LD13huEWLddZ_Q1lWY2dBnIr0FjwPwZdGrKkKeg_-OrFR_O80mQ-kpTClES2Fs1GGW196MBPCBaHKe5XEj8SNg11ZVsaTHPhBe1ywe7l-c9D2cAbwhULlT0ftQXMwFHOfeW4T77tdk9C3vPXL/s591/snp-scrap-council-tax.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="298" data-original-width="591" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh771DEQEcBCzvjQWJTVm_zvMd2vaHwBjHoDlgaXBqL3K_LD13huEWLddZ_Q1lWY2dBnIr0FjwPwZdGrKkKeg_-OrFR_O80mQ-kpTClES2Fs1GGW196MBPCBaHKe5XEj8SNg11ZVsaTHPhBe1ywe7l-c9D2cAbwhULlT0ftQXMwFHOfeW4T77tdk9C3vPXL/s320/snp-scrap-council-tax.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>The Greens were not the only ones caught out by the announcement. COSLA was also not consulted, which disrespects the new start promised in the Verity House Agreement. This is, after all, a local government tax, and the rate is a matter for individual councils, not the central government. It will also further reduce the proportion of funding raised locally. By dictating almost all council finance from the centre, councils become local administrators rather than local government – unable to respond to local needs and be accountable to their electorate.</p><p>Then there is the cost, at least £100m, to compensate councils. Only this week, the IFS <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/publications/green-budget-2023?mc_cid=14bf7039c4&mc_eid=aebfe072fa" target="_blank">highlighted</a> the dire state of the UK finances. This means Barnett consequentials are unlikely to save the Scottish budget as they have in the past. Coming from a Scottish Government that has just told UNISON that there is no more cash for council workers pay, this is not clever industrial relations either. In fact, the only group to welcome the freeze was the tax dodgers alliance. As the STUC put it, "<i>Local services are crying out for investment, and today's announcement combined with a decade of inaction will only make the situation worse."</i> Let us not forget that the last freeze was not fully funded, and councils were forced to increase service <a href="https://unison-scotland.org.uk/briefings/e-briefing_CouncilTaxFreeze_June2014.pdf?_gl=1*qtsge*_ga*ODExMDkxNzIwLjE2OTc2MjI2NzM.*_ga_N3SM3NDVGH*MTY5NzYyMjY3Mi4xLjEuMTY5NzYyMjY5NS4zNy4wLjA.&_ga=2.96709599.1349622972.1697622673-811091720.1697622673" target="_blank">charges</a>.</p><p>The Scottish Government were consulting over a modestly progressive increase in the Council tax bands - proposing bills for Band E to Band H homes go up by 7.5%, 12.5%, 17.5% and 22.5%, respectively, in April. In contrast, a Council Tax freeze is regressive, disproportionally benefiting better-off households. This is a graphic I did in 2017, which shows just how much the last freeze benefited the wealthy.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj8Qx6U05OQ4g-WPuasayiMOI7xesCfVlKAxdbdlZgxL5iPOMkBc89Peh8_lGVqUYDLJAqcA_NDytv1XZ3yKBT3J5FzmqPpu4uZqWojTzI6_5vsrFjZZ061RLhTeOhRYnLbPq17JyPpd7l9FsUDu6gK_-jiQa7V4xQMVHZEjTp_ndk9T1N8zRZLbCvriYP/s2054/Screenshot%202023-10-18%20at%2010.57.02.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2054" data-original-width="1464" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj8Qx6U05OQ4g-WPuasayiMOI7xesCfVlKAxdbdlZgxL5iPOMkBc89Peh8_lGVqUYDLJAqcA_NDytv1XZ3yKBT3J5FzmqPpu4uZqWojTzI6_5vsrFjZZ061RLhTeOhRYnLbPq17JyPpd7l9FsUDu6gK_-jiQa7V4xQMVHZEjTp_ndk9T1N8zRZLbCvriYP/s320/Screenshot%202023-10-18%20at%2010.57.02.png" width="228" /></a></div><br /><p>If the Scottish Government has the cash to support families through the cost of living crisis, they should focus on progressive measures like the Scottish Child Payment and strengthening the public services we all rely on. A tax handout for the rich is a regressive policy.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-54160634200064816282023-09-11T19:16:00.000+01:002023-09-11T19:16:19.390+01:00Naval Shipbuilding - UK by Default<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">I was at the Scottish Parliament’s Cross Party Group on Maritime and Shipbuilding this afternoon to present a<a href="https://prospect.org.uk/news/prospect-launches-report-on-effective-defence-procurement-with-panel-of-expert-contributors" target="_blank"> report</a> I wrote for Prospect, Design, build and maintain: Effective defence procurement. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyN_PNKzbTZDN5nXj9qX8eKDgh_tf35jMJ5-pWTt-aQej1pvog_a1zap53oMeeHgGL9mRefJxs9SvUxeANJl4PT5zTzE7U3CAFekZTzciGhCMMbkIvB_QmFwnMDGc_UEB-dVkOe6_ZZWY_zgCh3Vry-j7Z6ysinGQ7ms71DPO-ykv--KJHOA19N_ml535q/s1336/Screenshot%202023-09-11%20at%2017.23.23.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="588" data-original-width="1336" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyN_PNKzbTZDN5nXj9qX8eKDgh_tf35jMJ5-pWTt-aQej1pvog_a1zap53oMeeHgGL9mRefJxs9SvUxeANJl4PT5zTzE7U3CAFekZTzciGhCMMbkIvB_QmFwnMDGc_UEB-dVkOe6_ZZWY_zgCh3Vry-j7Z6ysinGQ7ms71DPO-ykv--KJHOA19N_ml535q/w400-h176/Screenshot%202023-09-11%20at%2017.23.23.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">The report describes the current defence procurement regulations and my recommendations for a new approach. This is an explicit UK by default strategy linked to an industrial strategy, with workforce planning and social value at its core. Social Value measures the direct, indirect and induced impact of procurement. Around one-third of defence spending returns to the Treasury, so it makes sense to recognise this in bid evaluation. Procurement should also support public policy considerations, including the real living wage, employment standards, and ending tax dodging. My proposals on this mirrors my work on Scottish procurement legislation, so although defence is reserved, the Scottish Government can lead by example.</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">Defence spending remains a crucial part of the Scottish economy. The latest data shows jobs have increased by one-third to 33,500 - contributing £3.2bn to the Scottish economy. For Scotland, a big chunk of that investment and employment comes from naval shipbuilding on the Clyde and at Rosyth. Babcock has built a new frigate factory in Rosyth, and BAE Systems is expanding its covered building facility in Govan. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">While the frigate programme is a solid work programme, the rest of the National Shipbuilding Strategy is vague regarding timescales and funding. Companies need greater certainty if they are to invest in the necessary facilities, equipment and skills. Potential opportunities are not sufficient. This helpful graphic (from Navy Lookout) takes the plan and highlights the capability gaps towards the end of the decade and into the 2030s. <o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDMdtMnRkKrdCMGncB-FREZvFRJUYOa993l-OiWC-bDDgegKJyFfbfqJBNhi_uAoytf-vx1VP3adGNqH4ZSdCY-ilWoh2DSOQR-GI5QCfXUR2lPjb8u9xch4EnUg2cDsWgFa_8fmzq70kXbjepAEL5Dk7yT1x5bjBv7drox8dO7ANU3_ED890CK0ZwocBf/s1072/shipbuilding.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1072" data-original-width="768" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDMdtMnRkKrdCMGncB-FREZvFRJUYOa993l-OiWC-bDDgegKJyFfbfqJBNhi_uAoytf-vx1VP3adGNqH4ZSdCY-ilWoh2DSOQR-GI5QCfXUR2lPjb8u9xch4EnUg2cDsWgFa_8fmzq70kXbjepAEL5Dk7yT1x5bjBv7drox8dO7ANU3_ED890CK0ZwocBf/w286-h400/shipbuilding.png" width="286" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Other countries across the world build in greater certainly through local production strategies. The UK has the most open procurement regime in the world. The Royal Navy Fleet Solid Support ships have recently been awarded to a Spanish-led consortium, which benefits from the taxation treatment I recommend in my report. Countries like India, USA, Canada and Türkiye have explicit local procurement strategies. An Australian minister put it even more bluntly, <i>'We make no apologies for deciding to invest in Australian-built ships, creating Australian jobs and using Australian steel.'</i> They point to research that shows that building ships locally has huge flow-on effects and can help underpin other advanced manufacturing. This graphic explains the security and economic benefits of investing in a domestic defence industry.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6uzBymIL9E0ACcgC8cBOo1hkmqkMBYdcOw5_WEfjsGHPZ6o8BIXjyvmqwITW1QhAvGnqw9zdV-e5HxrhwaMc0-H7MT9-SRQirgLcpsP9oJ6Lq1_deT5eLgrG9zHMKkGPBOFBJxBVJVlAdQp5duE25HXGR50G_xwBtQDo-FEA6jhLyKXELaxOYoARPPfRE/s987/def%20pro.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="987" data-original-width="806" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6uzBymIL9E0ACcgC8cBOo1hkmqkMBYdcOw5_WEfjsGHPZ6o8BIXjyvmqwITW1QhAvGnqw9zdV-e5HxrhwaMc0-H7MT9-SRQirgLcpsP9oJ6Lq1_deT5eLgrG9zHMKkGPBOFBJxBVJVlAdQp5duE25HXGR50G_xwBtQDo-FEA6jhLyKXELaxOYoARPPfRE/w326-h400/def%20pro.png" width="326" /></a></div><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span></p>Having a shipbuilding strategy is a positive start. However, to make the plan a reality, companies must manage technological developments, the ever-changing political climate, economic uncertainties and a war on the continent of Europe. There are opportunities but plenty of pitfalls. What they need is a more stable procurement framework of the sort that is common worldwide. </span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Open Sans", sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;"><o:p></o:p></p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-40807437681230014072023-09-06T11:58:00.000+01:002023-09-06T11:58:19.497+01:00Programme for Government - Fair Work<p> The Scottish Government has determined that Scotland will become a Fair Work Nation by 2025. Yesterday, the Scottish Government <a href="https://www.gov.scot/programme-for-government/" target="_blank">published</a> its Programme for Government, so it's a good time to assess the likely progress in the coming year.</p><p>The Reid Foundation has published a <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/2023/08/assessing-fair-work-in-scotland/" target="_blank">report</a> I drafted on Assessing Fair Work in Scotland. Trade unions in Scotland called for the creation of Fair Work, welcomed its aspirations and now serve on the Fair Work Convention. However, they also recognise the limitations of Fair Work and have been critical of its implementation.</p><p>In the report, I conclude, ‘<i>The largely voluntary approach taken to Scotland’s Fair Work initiative has made a limited but positive contribution to improving working lives, particularly in the broader public services. However, it has not yet delivered major results, as evidenced by the continued prevalence of poor-quality work across Scotland’s labour market. If Scotland is to claim to be a Fair Work Nation in 2025, much more needs to be done to turn the worthy ambition into reality.’</i></p><p>The report makes 19 recommendations to improve Fair Work. The key points are summarised in this graphic, which focuses on using all the levers of government to deliver all aspects of Fair Work.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEittnkhBXzBTJy5eHBAGkyidL2ETWvhrnnBHYCSdpcqw8q8Sw-jaEZNmCImek3hPEvptMhCZBDOByMx8iaGI099k8tE4I-sxy_l_XKEJPgFuT27vtTmcgfbB2VZTp-vAt0DfMfzYW93pmY4FZcLIoohzpB3NWDVzx9TDL79Mva0SIRQ83J3LX9YxlNvt7yJ/s1302/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1302" data-original-width="518" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEittnkhBXzBTJy5eHBAGkyidL2ETWvhrnnBHYCSdpcqw8q8Sw-jaEZNmCImek3hPEvptMhCZBDOByMx8iaGI099k8tE4I-sxy_l_XKEJPgFuT27vtTmcgfbB2VZTp-vAt0DfMfzYW93pmY4FZcLIoohzpB3NWDVzx9TDL79Mva0SIRQ83J3LX9YxlNvt7yJ/w254-h640/Picture1.png" width="254" /></a></div><br /><p>In the Programme for Government, it is welcome to see such a clear statement that Fair Work is crucial to achieving social justice, ‘<i>Creating good jobs and increasing wages is one of the best ways to support our anti-poverty agenda.</i>' It is disappointing that in 'business reset' mode, the introduction did not repeat its importance to the broader economy. On the substance of Fair Work, there was nothing new. </p><p><b><i>Delivering Fair Work for all</i></b></p><p><i>■ Boost wages by increasing the number of employers who pay at least the Real Living Wage including through Fair Work conditionality for grants, introducing sectoral Fair Work agreements, and improving outcomes by delivering the Fair Work Action Plan.</i></p><p>This is all fine, but extending Fair Work conditionality to grants took many years. We are still waiting for the critical policy of sectoral Fair Work agreements, which is also not necessarily the same as sectoral collective bargaining. Delivering the previously announced Fair Work Action Plan ought to be a given, but maybe not! Increasing the minimum pay of social care and childcare workers to £12 per hour is a welcome step in the right direction, even if better employers are already there and beyond. However, it is another sticking plaster which needs sectoral collective bargaining to address the wide range of employment issues that underpin recruitment and retention in these sectors.</p><p>There is no mention of the aim for Scotland to be a Fair Work Nation by 2025. Another task group has been established for this, which will need to focus less on ambition and more on delivery. If, as the Programme for Government claims, ‘<i>Delivering Fair Work for all is critical to our missions and a top priority for the Scottish Government</i>,’ and to ‘<i>Embed fairness in how workplaces are managed</i>’ is to become a reality, more needs to be done as set out in the Reid Foundation report.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>P.S. My thanks to the union representatives and others who gave their time to be interviewed by me. And to the Alex Ferry Foundation, which funded the project.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-1226239846102116312023-08-16T16:34:00.004+01:002023-08-16T16:36:34.211+01:00Pension fund investment<p> This blog post is a rare departure for me. I am going to support, in principle at least, a UK Government initiative! Even if it was overhyped and delivered somewhat less than promised. Yes, of course, there is a but.</p><p>In his Mansion House speech last month, the Chancellor presented a series of new reforms to the financial services sector. The aim is to unlock capital for industry and increase returns for savers. The idea is to increase funding liquidity for high-growth companies through reforms to the UK’s pension market and strengthening the UK’s position as a stock market listing destination. The government is also reforming and simplifying the financial services rulebook to ensure growth-friendly regulation of any financial services centre without compromising stability. This is part of a broader process known as the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/financial-services-the-edinburgh-reforms" target="_blank">Edinburgh Reforms</a>.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOHjhkw-n60yjVYUKn0YiAA3SVGihWl3RtxKyVPY1K0U47FaPMsnTgz5UAwhcuR1x_hkTgcaeIElRo-tZPAqRMXrMAgbXq5Bf8eVmRMK63ymRdgq45NETdgmtuMGIKJLyoZDQwmZa3AP1Q4eSXJsA4t944WIJrm5poioVaYPlGQUtfMaTwG_Yc78lgSRbs/s800/Fjh1_jHWAAA2HSj.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOHjhkw-n60yjVYUKn0YiAA3SVGihWl3RtxKyVPY1K0U47FaPMsnTgz5UAwhcuR1x_hkTgcaeIElRo-tZPAqRMXrMAgbXq5Bf8eVmRMK63ymRdgq45NETdgmtuMGIKJLyoZDQwmZa3AP1Q4eSXJsA4t944WIJrm5poioVaYPlGQUtfMaTwG_Yc78lgSRbs/s320/Fjh1_jHWAAA2HSj.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p>A key element of this reform is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-government-wants-to-make-pension-pots-bigger-with-riskier-investments-but-it-faces-big-challenges-209748" target="_blank">consolidation</a> of pension funds to enable them to raise their returns by making more investments considered higher risk – especially in small firms developing new technologies. According to government calculations, this could create an extra £50 billion of investment into innovative firms by 2030, giving a 12% (£1,000 a year) boost to the pension of an 18-year-old who enrols in one today.</p><p>The largest pension scheme in the UK is the Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS). There has already been a pooling of assets, and the latest consultation envisages further consolidation. Notably, this process is being led by the Treasury, which sees this as part of the UK pension investment reform. LGPS consolidation in Scotland is devolved, so outwith Treasury control. Here consolidation is moving more slowly, supported by trade unions but resisted by employers.</p><p>UK pension funds have assets of over £2.5 trillion, the largest in Europe and second only to the US worldwide. However, UK funds have cut their allocation to British-based companies, bringing down the valuations of many UK businesses. UK funds have also been slow to invest in infrastructure, unlike many global funds, who even own critical elements of UK infrastructure. As Colin Maclean put it in <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/23706760.pensions-saying-productive-finance-doesnt-make/" target="_blank">The Herald</a> recently, “<i>The process certainly accelerated with Brexit and UK political turmoil, but more recently it has seemed to be driven by financial regulation and some debatable guidance on risk and returns from pension fund advisers. Much of the UK problem seems self-inflicted.”</i></p><p>It's not as if UK funds have an excellent record of success. The investment return on the average UK pension fund over the last 10 years has lagged behind Australia, Canada and the Netherlands. This significantly reduces retirement pensions for those in DC schemes and undermines the viability of better DB schemes. The investment industry is always wary of greater regulation, and the lack of transparency means most pension contributors need more understanding of these issues. This limits the voluntary buy-in by pension funds, and the current initiative is tame.</p><p>Another reason for investment reform is the need for pension funds to green their investment strategies and portfolio assets to help the world transition to a net-zero economy. Expertise is needed to achieve this;; small funds rarely operate at the necessary scale. A new <a href="https://www.europeanpensions.net/ep/Pension-funds-must-rise-to-the-challenge-of-net-zero-transition.php" target="_blank">report</a> from the University of Exeter funded by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero highlights the role of pension schemes and other asset owners in the net-zero transition. It warned that it was too late to tackle climate change incrementally, and a dramatic acceleration of progress across society and the global economy was now required. However, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-decides-what-esg-is-and-how-to-make-investments-greener-new-research-208779" target="_blank">current tools</a> available to pension trustees to evaluate their strategies are limited, and they typically delegate their investment decisions to ESG indices. As a pension trustee, I am only too aware of their limitations.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjag25Zm-U2nf7aPQiSKNi-HzI3kokk6nUXLTveXoSy-dyIpMtXMU78-TSs8Pc1aWKgmB4ojHfm_pEZjYM7rCbDqAL_4VwbveAXfBRO-whKBcAjG1w5kuFIs8k2yYnmOmVEjLPKsYrhYPSjrpdFD35ifvDYYRnYtkgRhuH-xlf0Iq2m7uTi8nQ26MxGjqYk/s600/2023-report-424x600.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="424" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjag25Zm-U2nf7aPQiSKNi-HzI3kokk6nUXLTveXoSy-dyIpMtXMU78-TSs8Pc1aWKgmB4ojHfm_pEZjYM7rCbDqAL_4VwbveAXfBRO-whKBcAjG1w5kuFIs8k2yYnmOmVEjLPKsYrhYPSjrpdFD35ifvDYYRnYtkgRhuH-xlf0Iq2m7uTi8nQ26MxGjqYk/s320/2023-report-424x600.png" width="226" /></a></div><br /><p>Pension fund consolidation makes a lot of sense, as does investment in a broader range of asset classes. However, support for the financial deregulation that comes with the broader reforms may be dampened by memories of how previous “light touch” regulation led to the crisis conditions in 2008 – and the main cause of poor investment performance ever since. Also, further movement away from the EU's rules, as the Chancellor envisages, would make it harder to secure the prize of an equivalence agreement with the UK and other jurisdictions.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-75068224043387678172023-07-18T16:52:00.000+01:002023-07-18T16:52:17.887+01:00Defence Strategy Refresh<p>All governments have a defence strategy, which typically outlines the threats and how the government proposes to respond to those threats. The current UK strategy claims to be an <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975077/Global_Britain_in_a_Competitive_Age-_the_Integrated_Review_of_Security__Defence__Development_and_Foreign_Policy.pdf" target="_blank">integrated review</a> of defence, development and foreign policy. However, it actually has a proliferation of strategies, which as a RUSI <a href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/uks-integrated-review-one-year-fit-purpose" target="_blank">paper</a> puts it, <i>‘the Review depends on too many other ‘strategies’ that have not had the same guiding mind, fall short of the lofty ambition in the capping document and do not connect the Integrated Review’s ends with the requisite ways and means. The suite of strategies is weakened as a result.’</i></p><p>I was recently asked to write a briefing note on the UK defence strategy as part of a Europe-wide analysis of how Western European nations are responding to the Ukraine War. I had looked at some of this in a paper I wrote for <a href="https://prospect.org.uk/news/prospect-launches-report-on-effective-defence-procurement-with-panel-of-expert-contributors" target="_blank">Prospect</a> on defence procurement earlier this year. I enjoy working with European colleagues as it gives you a different perspective on domestic policy.</p><p>Ben Wallace, the Secretary of State for Defence, has had to publish a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/refreshed-defence-command-paper-sets-out-future-for-armed-forces" target="_blank">revised strategy</a> today. In fairness, defence reviews can often rapidly become outdated. While the Integrated Review recognised the threat of Russia, it probably couldn’t have anticipated the invasion of Ukraine. This means the downgrading of conventional forces (reducing the Army to 72,500 soldiers) and the emphasis on an ill-defined ‘Global Britain’ looked short-sighted when large-scale fighting occurred in European cities. For political reasons, the review also played down the importance of EU cooperation at a time when the EU is strengthening its security and defence policy. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLu2oehXeOuTjGtJicHW33qCG8tyohZrWkmuQziu7TxCb-RIrgwDopbw9p0yTCh8eNpNoNdqdTi_FNJBt6Fj6aj-fKRezmPskqkEoQWLCS0G5M1StsxVfrYRwyb9xn5XDYCjicHBEU0v2ppmeYejQ9FcytatsmaoDvdpg1gDoRXW39DRWH2gnHgdt4RBot/s1510/Screenshot%202023-07-18%20at%2015.55.41.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1510" data-original-width="1236" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLu2oehXeOuTjGtJicHW33qCG8tyohZrWkmuQziu7TxCb-RIrgwDopbw9p0yTCh8eNpNoNdqdTi_FNJBt6Fj6aj-fKRezmPskqkEoQWLCS0G5M1StsxVfrYRwyb9xn5XDYCjicHBEU0v2ppmeYejQ9FcytatsmaoDvdpg1gDoRXW39DRWH2gnHgdt4RBot/w328-h400/Screenshot%202023-07-18%20at%2015.55.41.png" width="328" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>We now need a more realistic strategy, returning to the continental strategy the UK had for much of the last century. Military mass is still required on land, sea and air, with digital augmenting the strategy, not replacing it. Even the Royal Navy, which arguably did better than the Army in the last review, is stretched painfully thin with new deployments worldwide. The Ukraine War has demonstrated the continued importance of artillery, and while armoured vehicles will evolve, they are not obsolete. Technology matters, but <a href="https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/07/03/the-war-in-ukraine-shows-how-technology-is-changing-the-battlefield?utm_content=conversion.direct-response.non-subscriber.article_top&utm_campaign=a.23specialreport_content_v1_registered_control.2023-07-08&utm_medium=email.owned.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=7%2F8%2F2023&utm_id=1672355&sfmc_id=0033z00002ywX63AAE" target="_blank">mass</a> still counts on the battlefield.</p><p>The Johnson/Truss era included some fanciful commitments to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP. RUSI estimates that 3% would cost an extra £157bn by 2030, the equivalent of raising income tax by 5p. That isn't going to happen, whoever wins the next General Election. There is a welcome commitment to increase spending to 2.5% of GDP. This has cross-party support, although the Shadow Defence Secretary, John Healy, has rightly argued that too much of that extra money is needed to plug a £17 billion black hole in the MoD's budget.</p><p>Ben Wallace will be <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66213245" target="_blank">leaving </a>the Cabinet at the next reshuffle, which is a pity as he is one of the more respected ministers in a struggling government. He wanted to be the next NATO Secretary-General, but Britain’s reducing post-Brexit influence was unlikely to deliver that. He has said he will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/18/ben-wallace-vows-to-press-pm-over-military-spending-pledge" target="_blank">speak out</a> if the 2.5% pledge is not delivered. Meanwhile, he is left to unveil an updated defence strategy with no new money. It was evident from the European workshop I attended that other European countries are increasing their spending. While they may have started from behind the UK, they don't have our fanciful global pretensions. </p><p>So, Wallace is left with robbing Peter to pay Paul, and the much-criticised army cuts will go ahead to ensure there is sufficient cash to replenish stocks depleted by supplies to Ukraine. However, the update does at least appear to recognise that the European stage has changed, and lessons need to be learned from Ukraine—the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66229336" target="_blank">'battle-lab'</a> as Wallace puts it. </p><p>The three-front war scenario (Russia, Far East and Africa) comes in for some scathing commentary from Simon Jenkins in today’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/17/minsitry-of-defence-britain-war-2030-ben-wallace-russia" target="_blank">Guardian</a>. He argues that none of these scenarios is a plausible threat to national security,<i> ‘They emerge from some vague notion about “Britain’s role in the world”, echoed by Boris Johnson down the mustier corridors of Whitehall.’ </i>He won’t be reassured by today’s paper which says, ‘<i>We need to be able to compete, challenge and contest threats globally.’</i> </p><p>We should also remember that Defence spending remains a <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23657016.defence-leads-way-scotlands-ads-turnover-hits-7bn/" target="_blank">crucial part </a>of the Scottish economy. The latest data shows jobs have increased by one-third to 33,500 - contributing £3.2bn to the Scottish economy. The space sector is a big part of that growth. Much-needed meaningful reform of defence procurement still seems a long way off. Today’s paper feels like a rehash of old rhetoric.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhinvFxoo4l4hm51p_nj5ZUWxPCdOoeNMu1JYzC0uvaZC1iUHJz_NoYy6X_JJ4HP1mB7iPlRUbnFJ3apBjWVCTbqokGpxUC2QFfneiU-tUDr_M1yV0arvKz1qV_SG1jJncjxnD0hZBpLO3kSc89vazEYxVGdWl-udwJuTxj8zD7DUj5N0yd13BffrTjhVBc/s630/Screenshot%202023-07-18%20at%2015.57.25.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="612" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhinvFxoo4l4hm51p_nj5ZUWxPCdOoeNMu1JYzC0uvaZC1iUHJz_NoYy6X_JJ4HP1mB7iPlRUbnFJ3apBjWVCTbqokGpxUC2QFfneiU-tUDr_M1yV0arvKz1qV_SG1jJncjxnD0hZBpLO3kSc89vazEYxVGdWl-udwJuTxj8zD7DUj5N0yd13BffrTjhVBc/w389-h400/Screenshot%202023-07-18%20at%2015.57.25.png" width="389" /></a></div><br /><p>The armed forces play a vital role in protecting and safeguarding the UK. At a time when full-scale war has returned to Europe, and external threats are continually changing, that role has never been more critical. It remains to be seen if today’s refresh provides the means to respond to an uncertain world.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-90188218116638296442023-06-05T17:05:00.002+01:002023-06-05T17:05:28.603+01:00Hope and Despair<p> 'Hope and Despair' is the appropriate title of Neil Findlay's<a href="https://www.luath.co.uk/productsh/hope-and-despair" target="_blank"> new book</a> covering the last few years of his time as an MSP. It was politically tumultuous from the aftermath of Brexit and Theresa May in 2017 to Boris Johnson in 2021. As a Scottish Labour MSP, the period began with socialist leaders in Scotland and the UK, fatally undermined internally and externally. But, of course, none of this avoids Neil's trenchant commentary! </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3-1Ku7BiqYwUPa78gNImD-C_Qpp3Fm5tRS5PgW1GzWEvZqHDpjrzceNccZnOVeNm9WBKxmOztUUOdrsrpaNo62YqFL_Cx0QShkbQHr-6jxgjKd2bZBnCQucgg9lpejMybhLw-6AalvnKTnq4N90C3O5cG0VXM1EX3DkZir-xGLlY2ch0PZyhdfJ3MHw/s663/Hope+and+Despair_FINAL3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="663" data-original-width="442" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3-1Ku7BiqYwUPa78gNImD-C_Qpp3Fm5tRS5PgW1GzWEvZqHDpjrzceNccZnOVeNm9WBKxmOztUUOdrsrpaNo62YqFL_Cx0QShkbQHr-6jxgjKd2bZBnCQucgg9lpejMybhLw-6AalvnKTnq4N90C3O5cG0VXM1EX3DkZir-xGLlY2ch0PZyhdfJ3MHw/s320/Hope+and+Despair_FINAL3.png" width="213" /></a></div><br /><p>The book takes the form of a diary, which describes and comments on the events of the period he was involved in. I was closely involved with many of the same events, and the book contains incidents I had forgotten about or often wished I had! </p><p>It starts with the successful campaign to get Richard Leonard elected. The book is full of where Neil feels Richard got it wrong and when he got it right. However, in the main, it details the appalling behaviour of some MSPs in this period, ‘<i>the more private a meeting or report, the quicker it is leaked</i>.’ So bad that many MSPs did all they could to avoid Parliamentary Group meetings. As Neil puts it, '<i>dominated by the most negative people you will ever come across</i>.' Neil also wasn't a big fan of his local council leadership, like so many, dominated by council officers rather than taking political control of issues. Neil was often described as 'Jeremy Corbyn's man in Scotland'. He certainly did admire the Labour Leader but wasn't slow to tell him when he got it wrong. He also covers the many efforts from the Labour right wing to undermine him.</p><p>He covers many of the debates in the Scottish Parliament during this period, focusing on the causes he was most associated with. I say debates because Neil was among the few MSPs who could debate. I recall taking a group of UNISON Stewards to Parliament one day. They all commented that most MSPs just read out prepared speeches, and only Neil and Murdo Fraser actually debated. There is little I admire about Westminster, but I agree with Neil that the committee system and some backbenchers demonstrate a degree of independent thought that you rarely see at Holyrood.</p><p>Neil was clearly happiest as a backbencher championing the causes he pursued with a tenacity rarely seen in Parliament. The transvaginal mesh scandal, miners' justice, social care, and drug policy come up time and time again. Even though he was a list MSP, local concerns around jobs and services pour out of every page. This was a tough period for his family as well, not least his wife Fiona's health and his mother in a care home during the pandemic. Neil was understandably critical about the way older people were treated throughout COVID.</p><p>Neil Findlay is one of those rare elected politicians. He is a working-class guy from a community devasted by deindustrialisation who never planned to be a politician. That sense of community comes through every page of this book, as do his socialist principles. As he puts it, <i>'It is about what you feel, your outlook on life, your sense of community and the culture you are immersed in.' </i>We could do with more Neil Findlays in Parliament. Sadly, we are likely to see less in the current political culture.</p><p>This isn’t a cheery book as the title suggests, although it has a certain black humour in places. However, it was time well spent reading. He ends, as all socialists should, with optimism, ‘<i>live in hope and have a belief that tomorrow will always be better than today.’ </i></p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-52529732141568202012023-04-25T15:54:00.000+01:002023-04-25T15:54:44.972+01:00Effective defence procurement<p>I was in Westminster this week at the launch of a paper on defence procurement I wrote for the Prospect trade union. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW_IhrJYslRtt8bk4bAqWOoGyYorFHyAsjUzsyjv_Nn645cxdYr6jwu8x5z7GhzQBewD_RI0MjvYGG23jg17SHdKNb2KngCGjv1NBcpw8t8yR6F2EcXXD_rmNTy1N1JfA7QS_ZbcX2QHCGOMW02eTYfUiFvksR5YfILyCVIwVaWMNm06bGnJ8EKjUncg/s1740/Screenshot-2023-04-24-at-13.40.18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1740" data-original-width="1234" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW_IhrJYslRtt8bk4bAqWOoGyYorFHyAsjUzsyjv_Nn645cxdYr6jwu8x5z7GhzQBewD_RI0MjvYGG23jg17SHdKNb2KngCGjv1NBcpw8t8yR6F2EcXXD_rmNTy1N1JfA7QS_ZbcX2QHCGOMW02eTYfUiFvksR5YfILyCVIwVaWMNm06bGnJ8EKjUncg/s320/Screenshot-2023-04-24-at-13.40.18.png" width="227" /></a></div><p>The launch included interesting contributions from the Shadow Minster for Defence Procurement, Chris Evans MP, Andrew Kinniburgh (Made in UK) and Prospect’s Bob King. Chris welcomed the report and stressed the importance of a new approach to procurement based on the mutual respect of all the procurement parties. He pledged that a future Labour Government would prioritise sovereign capacity in defence procurement, recognising the sector's importance to local communities. Andrew focused on the role of SMEs in moving away from the increasing reliance on defence imports. Finally, Bob King emphasised the role of Prospect members in delivering for UK defence.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZK3ARrHhEFV95gGHHGd2aCy47mfxuZ8CE2KOK4svbgjuBLmZDIxg92-odAdZ9QOenC_F4ZYZUXls-zj8JgmCjtQ9odNX0JGNpl8ZM9FAp4zDyImO-nH_iqIpK64m0Sxq-qMB9FDNHCStaGn3t76uTmeNBmqzitRumBEE2RFyKJtQODxTHcpr_2rokRA/s1200/FufG7b0WIAAB9sS.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZK3ARrHhEFV95gGHHGd2aCy47mfxuZ8CE2KOK4svbgjuBLmZDIxg92-odAdZ9QOenC_F4ZYZUXls-zj8JgmCjtQ9odNX0JGNpl8ZM9FAp4zDyImO-nH_iqIpK64m0Sxq-qMB9FDNHCStaGn3t76uTmeNBmqzitRumBEE2RFyKJtQODxTHcpr_2rokRA/s320/FufG7b0WIAAB9sS.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><p>My report starts by looking at the UK defence strategy, or more accurately; it's far too many strategies. The UK Government has published and recently refreshed an Integrated Review, but in my experience, many strategies can lead to confusion. Particularly when they cover more than one department. In fairness, defence strategies often date quickly, and the war in Ukraine has turned much of the 'Global Britain' rhetoric on its head. We are back to war in Europe with tanks, infantry and artillery.</p><p>The chatter about a 3% of GDP defence budget has quickly dissolved thanks to Truss economics. 2.5% is now a target ‘when conditions allow', which is unlikely anytime soon. However, as a new <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/2023/world-military-expenditure-reaches-new-record-high-european-spending-surges-0" target="_blank">analysis</a> shows, Britain still has the biggest defence budget in Europe at a time when just about everyone outside Africa is spending at Cold War levels. </p><p>The UK defence industry supports around 260,000 mostly quality jobs and is a big exporter. These jobs are spread across the regions and nations of the UK, including Scotland. This has a vital economic spin-off, what the Dunne Report called a 'Prosperity premium'. However, there are challenges, with skill shortages and a shortfall in research and development. A staggering fact is that Amazon spends more on R&D than the worldwide defence industry.</p><p>Defence procurement, not just in the UK, needs a better record of delivering outcomes. The recent Public Accounts Committee <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/38988/documents/191700/default/" target="_blank">report</a> is brutal. 13 formal reviews in 35 years tell their own story. But, in fairness, purchasing defence equipment is unlike buying cornflakes and paper clips. Military equipment is developed over a long timescale, during which ministers and even governments come and go, domestic priorities change, and external threat assessments are varied. Larger projects often require international collaboration, which brings additional challenges. The MoD also needs help recruiting and retaining staff with the requisite skills to manage often overcomplicated processes.</p><p>I also looked at international procurement practices. There has been a noticeable worldwide shift to local production or offset arrangements. The UK has the most open market, while the EU, NATO and countries like Türkiye and India have explicit strategies to support their defence industries. I explain why they do this and why the UK should follow suit.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixqpLCkyPtls9OErIgpcalGyLUlHGN3b5q6sk_liLyKEviD1lnmMwc9KLSf7I8ZnDqEwDOYoBsP2efqU3LHxNRDeF2H_WlBC9XLWVAq8_hUhMf6WeWHzpoeJu-TxPU5yEggh-lEZAHrBJPs1gVK5CQt-RMUBKanoJXPqdZ-wd3RxF1glw0ZXa5BxejyA/s904/Screenshot%202023-04-25%20at%2015.47.39.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="904" data-original-width="760" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixqpLCkyPtls9OErIgpcalGyLUlHGN3b5q6sk_liLyKEviD1lnmMwc9KLSf7I8ZnDqEwDOYoBsP2efqU3LHxNRDeF2H_WlBC9XLWVAq8_hUhMf6WeWHzpoeJu-TxPU5yEggh-lEZAHrBJPs1gVK5CQt-RMUBKanoJXPqdZ-wd3RxF1glw0ZXa5BxejyA/w336-h400/Screenshot%202023-04-25%20at%2015.47.39.png" width="336" /></a></div><p>The report's core describes the current defence procurement regulations and my recommendations for a new approach. This is an explicit UK by default strategy linked to an industrial strategy, with workforce planning and social value at its core. Social Value measures the direct, indirect and induced impact of procurement. Around one-third of defence spending returns to the Treasury, so it makes no sense to recognise this in bid evaluation. This comes through various taxes and public and private sector pay. Procurement should also support public policy considerations, including the real living wage, employment standards, and ending tax dodging. I propose a mix of regulation and guidance to achieve this. Guidance is more flexible but doesn't necessarily deliver the necessary cultural change.</p><p>My report concludes:</p><p><i>“Without a thriving defence industry, the UK puts at risk its freedom to act in defence of the country’s interests at home and abroad. And the armed forces risk losing their technological advantage over actual and potential enemies. Achieving these aims requires a commitment to sustain and strengthen national defence design, manufacturing and support capabilities in a partnership between the MoD and industry. The UK by default.”</i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ99BIZIelwVIfVc8b9Wbz5_CZEEmEuDrT2u62t81PnS0BQnCJNPu_dPR_pVNP3a-fSaIqjFRDLY3TI4VnGNMFtDbmt0Aofew3QfLRT1zBmhwEv92hF7gv9oQI8xOa9SBfnoRL8oa0g0l7ywd3zS1hdAIcubc256TyhW-9qVpmyqZwKiei0ckAQaX5kw/s770/Screenshot%202023-04-25%20at%2015.49.33.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="770" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ99BIZIelwVIfVc8b9Wbz5_CZEEmEuDrT2u62t81PnS0BQnCJNPu_dPR_pVNP3a-fSaIqjFRDLY3TI4VnGNMFtDbmt0Aofew3QfLRT1zBmhwEv92hF7gv9oQI8xOa9SBfnoRL8oa0g0l7ywd3zS1hdAIcubc256TyhW-9qVpmyqZwKiei0ckAQaX5kw/w400-h318/Screenshot%202023-04-25%20at%2015.49.33.png" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-61449023513991253032023-04-17T16:15:00.000+01:002023-04-17T16:15:16.137+01:00Pensions update<p> I was doing a general update on pensions last week for a gathering of pension trustees. I have long been interested in pensions, even before becoming a pensioner! I was the joint secretary of the biggest pension scheme in Scotland, and I am currently a director of a pension fund and have helped others with ESG issues. I am writing this from the STUC in Dundee, which surprisingly has no pension motions on the agenda.</p><p>A lot is going on in pensions that workers ought to be concerned about.</p><p>The fallout from the Truss economic crash is still felt across the sector. Pension funds have used LDI (Liability-Driven Investment) strategies for around 20 years to protect themselves from adverse movements in interest rates and inflation and reduce the impact on their funding levels when interest rates fall, rather than just the scheme's assets. All was well and good until Truss came along, resulting in many pension schemes struggling to find the required cash in such a short timescale. This also meant that many had to sell gilts, further reducing their value. We now have several reviews of LDI, and some funds are looking at the options for seeking <a href="https://www.professionalpensions.com/feature/4061652/legal-review-blame-ldi-crisis-claims" target="_blank">redress</a> for losses. </p><p>The cost of living crisis will impact members' ability to contribute to pension schemes. We should watch the number of opt-outs, as inflation remains stubbornly high. The IFS has <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/articles/reduced-discount-rate-public-sector-pensions-will-add-billions-employer-costs" target="_blank">suggested</a> that public sector pension schemes should reduce pension contributions as a substitute for inflation-linked pay increases. This strikes me as a short-sighted policy as it would come with reduced benefits and greater pensioner poverty in the long term.</p><p>While the Chancellor has been making noises about long-term pension reform, current reforms are going slowly. The much-vaunted pensions dashboard has been delayed again. Even more worrying is that commercial companies can establish their own dashboards. The scope for pension scams is enormous, and pension trustees must communicate effectively. The Statement of Strategy is a technical reform, but we are still awaiting details on the format.</p><p>I was at a pensions conference listening to Stephen Timms MP, the very able Chair of the Work and Pensions Select Committee. He highlighted the need for a political consensus around higher pension contributions and reducing the age for auto-enrolment from 21 to 18. He welcomed the Royal Mail collective DC scheme but argued that DC schemes generally needed to offer better value for money.</p><p>Regarding my interest in ESG investment, climate change is still going in the wrong direction. Pension funds need to focus on the genuine risks to their investments and not be fooled by the level of greenwashing being sold. We still have poor data, different regulations and general inertia in assessing corporate action. Pooled funds are a particular challenge. While we should focus on the downside of climate change, we should also focus on the upside of investment opportunities.</p><p>There has been a welcome focus recently on the pension <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/15/pensions-britain-women-equality-state-private" target="_blank">gender gap</a>. There is a 40% difference in retirement outcomes caused by unequal pay, career breaks, and greater part-time work. For example, a two-year break can result in an 11% reduction in pension for a worker on £30,000. Pension funds can help by looking closely at the structure of their scheme. The deficient level of state pension provision in the UK means that those with little or no private pension wealth are at a severe disadvantage in retirement. The IFS has <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-02/A-blueprint-for-a-better-tax-treatment-of-pensions.pdf" target="_blank">published</a> some ideas on the taxation of pensions, and the UK Government have given a giant handout to the wealthiest pensioners in the Budget. Not quite the tax reforms we require.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj_adhyQUOVAZ_8Wk6RX-FFRAJxZJxvJEwTA4nLL04dk5aEjSfC8wKQgDsWGi7l_gQ31xTlozcRlVUdQ_DP272Co7gMBtJer8JtMw3GtueWHkzp0ZJIdhaxZ2M61k6DFo5xt8lgvj_j4V6NVXAoYbinBenJ4U4ay4Y7Q2TRldn6Y4J7OU4DkBlrTy9vQ/s1388/Screenshot%202023-04-17%20at%2016.06.35.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="1388" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj_adhyQUOVAZ_8Wk6RX-FFRAJxZJxvJEwTA4nLL04dk5aEjSfC8wKQgDsWGi7l_gQ31xTlozcRlVUdQ_DP272Co7gMBtJer8JtMw3GtueWHkzp0ZJIdhaxZ2M61k6DFo5xt8lgvj_j4V6NVXAoYbinBenJ4U4ay4Y7Q2TRldn6Y4J7OU4DkBlrTy9vQ/s320/Screenshot%202023-04-17%20at%2016.06.35.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>The State Pension Age has also been in the news, with the UK Government deferring decisions until after the elections. Older people vote! Changes have significant financial implications. According to <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/articles/planned-increase-state-pension-age-67-68" target="_blank">the IFS</a>, a one-year increase in the state pension age in the late 2030s would likely save around £8-9 billion a year in today’s terms, and delaying the planned rise in the state pension age to 68 by seven years would cost at least £50 billion. In France, huge numbers are hitting the streets over a change in the pension age to 64. While we quietly allow this <a href="https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/b/unite-and-npc-join-forces-against-state-pension-age-rises" target="_blank">debate</a> to pass us by when life expectancy is falling.</p><p>If there is one message from all this – we all need to pay more attention to pensions.</p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-34452081099616221642023-03-24T15:59:00.000+00:002023-03-24T15:59:13.353+00:00Post-pandemic social care - Hopes and Disappointments<p> I was speaking at the launch of the <a href="https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/stockholm/20159.pdf">report</a> '<i><b>Post-pandemic Hopes and Disappointments</b></i>', which looks at post-pandemic social care across Europe. Written by the brilliant Lisa Pelling from the progressive Swedish think tank Arena Idé. This is a follow-up to an earlier <a href="http://unisondave.blogspot.com/2021/03/on-corona-frontline-european.html" target="_blank">report</a> on social care, to which I contributed a chapter on Scotland. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKnesOmsf0RXy-tPtRTezGG_gqX3rwEzJCpuW8w8fryrRJmreh7VkoqFtGIVZwu0GMtWFE3vpNTc99nd76d7Ym0o55Nu3PRUJ-R9PsLEhwXKgvW9BW1xHgrF9lKEuWwXXBE90b8niTs78c6u3FfksULVNaXZVVnakd8NFSQGOHQbsq_77TRgN7XkZYDw/s1408/Screenshot%202023-03-24%20at%2015.13.35.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1408" data-original-width="984" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKnesOmsf0RXy-tPtRTezGG_gqX3rwEzJCpuW8w8fryrRJmreh7VkoqFtGIVZwu0GMtWFE3vpNTc99nd76d7Ym0o55Nu3PRUJ-R9PsLEhwXKgvW9BW1xHgrF9lKEuWwXXBE90b8niTs78c6u3FfksULVNaXZVVnakd8NFSQGOHQbsq_77TRgN7XkZYDw/s320/Screenshot%202023-03-24%20at%2015.13.35.png" width="224" /></a></div><br /><p>This new report argues that it is now high time to evaluate what reforms have been undertaken in the different countries following the pandemic. Unlike Scotland and the UK, Sweden's pandemic inquiry has already reported. It asks what change have trade unions and their members been able to make? What strategies were successful, and what battles have not yet been won? What are the current priorities of trade unions in the care sector?</p><p>The report examines seven countries, including Scotland, focusing on these questions. You can watch my summary of the lessons learned and the future challenges for Scotland here (22 minutes in). <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Arenaide/videos/191738276912822">https://www.facebook.com/Arenaide/videos/191738276912822</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-VyZOqOF57etO41596cDBGr6gzrNxcX48Eej5aJ7E7Lh1d9bgg3vgQSHKScKry-dmOdhg1QFr9SWMhnQhZTxD1JTVsQoUcNdqDmNP6Bedvb0YG9gqIIpdhhvReLM09RkIWgaDADzOjJ1Sj6uOasJAGaYJr_3DjRgMh1xkzeBshxTp30dFHJzcORSadA/s2164/Screenshot%202023-03-24%20at%2014.34.46.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="906" data-original-width="2164" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-VyZOqOF57etO41596cDBGr6gzrNxcX48Eej5aJ7E7Lh1d9bgg3vgQSHKScKry-dmOdhg1QFr9SWMhnQhZTxD1JTVsQoUcNdqDmNP6Bedvb0YG9gqIIpdhhvReLM09RkIWgaDADzOjJ1Sj6uOasJAGaYJr_3DjRgMh1xkzeBshxTp30dFHJzcORSadA/w400-h168/Screenshot%202023-03-24%20at%2014.34.46.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>In short, these are immediate actions on funding and Fair Work for those who work in social care. We also need to rethink the proposed National Care Service, moving away from centralisation and privatisation towards a national framework with local delivery and accountability. The Scottish Government's pause is welcome, but this mustn't be an excuse to kick social care into the long grass as they did in England with the Dilnot report. This is an issue the Jimmy Reid Foundation will discuss at its STUC Congress fringe meeting in Dundee next month.</p><p>The report concludes that funding elderly care with private insurance is not a solution either. It is unlikely to bring more resources into the sector. Rather, only a redistributive tax system is likely to provide enough funding for care needs. And the question would still be: where will workers come from? Improvement in pay and conditions is pivotal as well. </p><p>Another important conclusion is that we have enough evidence: it’s time to move on to implementation and reforms. There are too many glossy documents, too many commissions, and too little action. Very true in Scotland as elsewhere!</p><p><br /></p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-91880368005818939322023-03-07T09:03:00.001+00:002023-03-07T09:03:38.865+00:00Freedom of Information and democracy<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">I was speaking at an <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/2023/02/meeting-on-foi-reform-6-march-at-6pm/" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;">event</a> hosted by the Jimmy Reid Foundation on the reform of Freedom of Information (FoI) in Scotland last night. Topically in the news this week with The Herald publishing a secret register of Scottish Ministers' declaration of interests. Yes, a secret declaration which tells you all you need to know about the culture of FoI in Scotland. And, of course, the publication of Matt Hancock’s Whats App messages, which illustrates why FoI has to evolve with new methods of communication.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy_TrK8vaxSyt92UKRReuFFAGn2l0YdlhIihmOELnhVvHJO_IqLrMJWj7uR0niiTDLh2uk0DRGpxNfCaJRR4uQjIeBKInfQEoWzf2iypA_1GQI7tbeK8VjJsQdD-QFwokZ1KGiliCszRcXgH6uZLYrekZx9SxBbp9SVjMjkb3vJOJmFinC36RQGhBtXw/s1052/Screenshot%202023-03-07%20at%2009.01.08.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1052" data-original-width="980" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy_TrK8vaxSyt92UKRReuFFAGn2l0YdlhIihmOELnhVvHJO_IqLrMJWj7uR0niiTDLh2uk0DRGpxNfCaJRR4uQjIeBKInfQEoWzf2iypA_1GQI7tbeK8VjJsQdD-QFwokZ1KGiliCszRcXgH6uZLYrekZx9SxBbp9SVjMjkb3vJOJmFinC36RQGhBtXw/s320/Screenshot%202023-03-07%20at%2009.01.08.png" width="298" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">Katy Clark, MSP was talking about her <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/bills-and-laws/proposals-for-bills/proposed-freedom-of-information-scotland-bill" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;">proposal</a> for a bill to reform Freedom of Information legislation in Scotland, including to:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->extend coverage to all bodies delivering public services, services of a public nature and publicly funded services<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->create a role of Freedom of Information officer<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->increase the proactive publication of information<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->improve enforcement where necessary<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->and improve compliance with human rights law.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><b><o:p> </o:p></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-style: normal;">Carole Ewart, Director of the <a href="https://www.cfois.scot/" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;">Campaign</a> for Freedom of Information in Scotland, gave us an overview of the development of FoI in Scotland. She also highlighted the latest in a long line of Scottish Government <a href="https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/consultation-paper/2022/11/access-information-rights-scotland-consultation/documents/access-information-rights-scotland-consultation/access-information-rights-scotland-consultation/govscot%3Adocument/access-information-rights-scotland-consultation.pdf" style="color: #954f72; text-decoration: underline;">consultations</a> on reform, none of which have made the step changes we need. She pointed to a succession of research, reports, campaigns and a Parliamentary inquiry report of May 2020, which concluded, </span><i>“There is a broad consensus that FOISA has brought significant benefits …. However, witnesses have identified a number of areas for improvement, both in terms of the legislation itself and in its implementation.”</i><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">The key point in my contribution was that public access to information is not simply a legal duty – it is a fundamental part of our democracy. I particularly welcome the proposal in Katy’s bill to extend the scope to all bodies delivering public services. This is a long-standing UNISON and trade union ask supported by public opinion. Successive Scottish Information Commissioners have said that Section 5 powers to designate additional bodies have been “woefully underused” and called for immediate steps to protect FOI rights from the damage caused by the outsourcing of important public services.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">Legislative change is vital, but we also need to make a culture shift away from regarding FoI as a matter of legal compliance to understanding it also as a vehicle for community empowerment and development. This means properly resourcing the Commissioner’s office to deal with appeals and promote best practice. That is also true for FoI staff in public bodies, particularly in local government subject to disproportionate funding cuts. I did a survey of FoI staff for UNISON a few years back, which highlighted:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Rising request levels and fewer staff.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Poor awareness in the organisation of FoI duties.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Resistance from some managers.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Limited capacity of colleagues to respond.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Poor structure of requests.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">This is reflected in my experience as a user of the system. In the past year, I have done several large-scale FoI requests across most of the public sector. Some public bodies did not respond on time – or at all. Others used delaying tactics, seeking clarifications or redacting in an overly legalistic way. In fairness, several went further than the legislation in answering questions that were strictly outside the legislation. When I was preparing for one major survey, I was surprised at how difficult it was to find the FoI officer on websites. It was rarely on the home page, and searches flagged up lots of detail but not the all-important FoI page with the publication scheme.</p><p><style class="WebKit-mso-list-quirks-style">
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</style></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: medium;">In summary, I welcome Katy Clark’s proposed Bill. Legislation is an important driver of change in itself, but also because it can encourage culture change. There needs to be greater recognition of FoI as a public duty, building organisational capacity, transparency and stronger publication schemes. If you care about transparency and our democracy, please respond to Katy Clark’s <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/bills-and-laws/proposals-for-bills/proposed-freedom-of-information-scotland-bill" target="_blank">consultation</a>.<b><o:p></o:p></b></p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-65347174913321969162023-02-20T17:28:00.000+00:002023-02-20T17:28:08.507+00:00The reform our NHS really needs<p> With NHS reform getting a lot of attention, the Socialist Health Association Scotland has <a href="http://www.shascotland.org/uploads/3/9/5/5/39556225/sha_nhs_reform_discussion_paper.pdf" target="_blank">published </a>a discussion paper I drafted that outlines the issues and seeks views on the way ahead. It is vital that those who support the founding principles of the NHS engage in this debate and don't leave it to those who use 'reform' as a code for the privatisation of healthcare.</p><p>Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation has reminded everyone that she was the first SNP Health Secretary in 2007, holding the post until 2012. It has to be said she started well, building up constructive relationships with the trade unions. The previous Labour Health Minister, Andy Kerr, did many positive things but could be abrasive. In the main, she continued with the previous government’s policies. Labour had ended the marketisation of the NHS, abolished NHS Trusts, and introduced cooperation rather than competition. She went a little further by outlawing private companies running GP practices, a growing trend in England, and further developed the NHS partnership model of industrial relations. But, overall, it was continuity with emollience.</p><p>However, while continuity has its strengths, it also meant tough political decisions were ducked. Nicola Sturgeon binned a report by Professor David Kerr that proposed a shift from hospital to community care, with better social care integration. Consequently, when budgets tightened with austerity, bed numbers fell, but social care capacity did not respond to growing demand from an ageing population. After promising to scrap PFI, they rebranded it. Instead, we got worthwhile reforms around minimum alcohol pricing and free prescriptions, but the significant structural challenges were ignored. The focus on inequality and prevention, recommended by the Christie Commission, is still gathering dust on the shelf.</p><p>Now, in the wake of a pandemic, these long-standing issues are biting the NHS with a vengeance. Waiting times have spiralled along with staff vacancy rates, ambulances queue outside A&E, cancer treatment has slowed, drug deaths have doubled, and health inequalities are worsening. Even when they eventually got around to reforming social care, they took a sensible National Care Service plan around national frameworks and turned it into a centralised monster - devouring local government and community services in its wake. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz6Xpn4TljJlbl8PkODqoZ6YE1Bd7L1qw5lP2r7-0IdOZJ3LzIbHy-v53pLpR7m4N_yU7LldFILMHvWNtyBcUiBl2Yzl3kZRSPLETu4SAFlNv6FrCgeZHHAyyWnjW34xCMWDaEdo_M-1aj3YBzLFjfcnQefuBd_AclDpYtF7I15WS4TjFDaPSOSJCa0Q/s1926/Screenshot%202023-02-13%20at%2016.00.21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1472" data-original-width="1926" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz6Xpn4TljJlbl8PkODqoZ6YE1Bd7L1qw5lP2r7-0IdOZJ3LzIbHy-v53pLpR7m4N_yU7LldFILMHvWNtyBcUiBl2Yzl3kZRSPLETu4SAFlNv6FrCgeZHHAyyWnjW34xCMWDaEdo_M-1aj3YBzLFjfcnQefuBd_AclDpYtF7I15WS4TjFDaPSOSJCa0Q/w400-h306/Screenshot%202023-02-13%20at%2016.00.21.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This table highlights how much NHS capacity has been reduced.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p>So, it is now left to others to pursue genuine reform. Not Tory privatisation or insurance systems which, as Gordon Brown highlights, would add more costs to an NHS whose spending levels have not matched similar countries. A point seemingly lost on a particular Green Scottish Government minister as well.</p><p>As for Scottish Labour's new plan to merge health boards, that is fine as far as it goes. I recall coming across the same plan presented to a pre-devolution health minister when I worked in the health department. The problem is that merging acute boards makes sense only if you manage community services in another way. We have tried many different ways of doing this since Joint Finance in the 1970s, and none have been a complete success.</p><p>An actual reform programme would start by tackling the underlying causes of ill health. It is a national disgrace that men in the most deprived areas of Scotland not only live 14 years less but can expect to spend 35% of their lives in poor health. NHS capacity has to be grown, not cut. That means better primary care, dentistry and more beds in our hospitals. A fully integrated NHS that ends the costly small business model and the growth of corporate dentistry, financed from tax havens. </p><p>A National Care Service based on local accountability, which improves pay and conditions for carers in Scotland, improving the quality of social care and relieving the pressure on hospital capacity. We now have more patients that don’t need to be in a hospital than the number of beds in our largest hospital. We also need proper workforce planning and fair pay and conditions to tackle recruitment and retention in health and social care, ending reliance on exorbitant agency costs, locums, staff banks, and the private sector.</p><p>And last but not least, recognising that one size does not fit all in a diverse Scotland. A strategy for rural health care services.</p><p>The NHS is on life support. However, real reform must address the underlying pressures, which means tackling health inequalities and social care.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-887133151020347402023-02-15T16:52:00.001+00:002023-02-15T16:52:44.996+00:00Nicola Sturgeon departs - opportunity, or more of the same?<p>Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and subsequent leadership contest are likely to dominate the airwaves for a while at least. Personally, I wish her well - eight years as First Minister is a tough shift for anyone. I have had my disagreements with her over the years, but as the STUC said this morning, she was always willing to engage with trade unions, and there was genuine and mutual respect. I will not be joining any celebration, and those who compare this to Thatcher's resignation have seriously lost the plot.</p><p>It will be a real challenge for the SNP to replace her and take forward their independence agenda. But, in an uncertain world, economically and militarily, that will be a big challenge anyway. My main criticism of the Scottish Government is the obsession with process over delivery. If you want to build confidence that Scotland could do better as an independent country, then the various delivery problems, including the ferries, recycling and the National Care Service (NCS), need to be managed better. </p><p>The SNP, since entering government, hasn't been known for developing a debating culture. However, even before Nicola's resignation, there were signs that the culture may be changing. As Stephen Flynn, the SNP's Westminster leader, put it, 'there has to be space for people to disagree and to disagree without being disagreeable'. The SNP Trade Union Group has called on the Scottish Government to be more creative with its powers, and they have joined criticisms of the NCS and Freeports.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxO7U9wOOFjFfJ9drLAoRJRVmxpBDUiVcbcfSB3zU-EdnhWoJbq9C_t4lWvGDIboB3AlQV6S_jHnBKe_DeBC-NnXKNfTam1IbqCanTscXI27F6iAUn0Men_aaijm85gm8VyeciDqybULZOdEdViZj3uwZC-UKEdsj-jIGlPolrB1VjxOCigslQwQRCtA/s1182/Screenshot%202023-02-15%20at%2016.42.59.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1182" data-original-width="844" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxO7U9wOOFjFfJ9drLAoRJRVmxpBDUiVcbcfSB3zU-EdnhWoJbq9C_t4lWvGDIboB3AlQV6S_jHnBKe_DeBC-NnXKNfTam1IbqCanTscXI27F6iAUn0Men_aaijm85gm8VyeciDqybULZOdEdViZj3uwZC-UKEdsj-jIGlPolrB1VjxOCigslQwQRCtA/s320/Screenshot%202023-02-15%20at%2016.42.59.png" width="228" /></a></div><br /><p>The Red Paper Collective published the latest <a href="https://issuu.com/redpapercollective.net/docs/2003_red_paper" target="_blank">edition</a> of their magazine this week in time for the Scottish Labour and STUC conferences. The editorial picks up on these themes, including Stephen Noon's call for a more consensual path for Scotland's constitutional debate. Gordon Brown's Commission at least got the constitutional debate on the UK agenda, even if it offered a limited vision for Scotland. Professor James Mitchell offers a sceptical analysis of the de-facto referendum strategy, which is now up for grabs anyway. As a strategy, it again focuses on the process rather than the case for independence. Beth Winter MP gives us an insight into the different approaches Wales is taking to their constitutional debate.</p><p>Alex Rowley MSP, offers some thoughts on how to end Scotland’s constitutional groundhog day. His article is worth reading in full rather than the lurid newspaper headlines. Scottish Labour also needs new thinking on the constitution if it wants to achieve more than simply replacing the Tories as the opposition. He also looks to the Welsh approach for inspiration. He argues that Scottish Labour should make a case for new powers when it is in Scotland's interest.</p><p>My contribution to the magazine focuses on one such new power – immigration. This is a crucial issue for Scotland as our population is not projected to increase at the same rate as the rest of the UK. The number of working-age Scots to support our ageing population won’t be available without immigration. Devolved immigration initiatives are not new in Scotland, going back to Labour's Fresh Talent Initiative. However, other countries have gone much further, most notably Canada. Sadly, UK ministers and shadow ministers have not seriously looked at the international evidence and how this can be achieved without the leakage of migrants to other parts of the UK. The Scottish Visa system proposed by the Scottish Government is a good starting point, although it would need more UK cooperation than they may like. On this point, Gordon Brown's duty of cooperation would help.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-MENR21SZRwD8gvIDl92Nt22pg4jVNgtNe1mnlm7QdAm6lvID_Kz-Y0LgPdsYDi-5iYN85-g-6q-ckVB6iSqiqMwH0xo3nMGoocnrHR1YP5DipsgNyq_TM5LzQ1zDyspG8UpxtsNscGrjh_NEoKwFXBbtu3lpWTbt5TP3kKY1_Zle0wDL2Ei1Vqubag/s631/Picture1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="631" data-original-width="522" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-MENR21SZRwD8gvIDl92Nt22pg4jVNgtNe1mnlm7QdAm6lvID_Kz-Y0LgPdsYDi-5iYN85-g-6q-ckVB6iSqiqMwH0xo3nMGoocnrHR1YP5DipsgNyq_TM5LzQ1zDyspG8UpxtsNscGrjh_NEoKwFXBbtu3lpWTbt5TP3kKY1_Zle0wDL2Ei1Vqubag/w331-h400/Picture1.png" width="331" /></a></div><p>As Neil Findlay asks in his Red Paper article, 'Where is the mature discussion?' He is critical of Nicola Sturgeon starting a debate that fell far short of what she promised, and the same applies to her unionist opponents. A 51%-49% strategy is never going to deliver a settled position. Nevertheless, he ends on a positive note, hoping that someone in the SNP will recognise that creating a new state based on a polarised, divided community is not a particularly good idea. And that Scottish Labour will equally wake up from its delusions. </p><p>Just maybe, a change in SNP leader is an opportunity to build sustainable change in the same way the case for devolution was made. But again, like Neil, I won't be 12 stone again or achieve a single-figure golf handicap!</p><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>P.s. A bit of personal news. I have taken on the role of Interim Director at the Jimmy Reid <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot" target="_blank">Foundation</a> this week. I would be pleased to hear from friends of the Foundation who have projects they wish us to take forward.</div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-38956801059663468382022-12-12T17:15:00.000+00:002022-12-12T17:15:53.903+00:00NHS Reform: It’s Social Care Stupid!<p> The current NHS crisis has spawned a flurry of proposed reforms to the National Health Service. They range from privatisation to the use of volunteers. However, most miss the point. The underlying problem facing the NHS across the UK is the failure to invest in social care.</p><p>The most obvious symptom of the NHS crisis is Accident and Emergency (<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63859908" target="_blank">A&E</a>). Less than 68% of people were assessed, treated, admitted or discharged within the Scottish Government’s four-hour A&E target. More than 6,800 people spent more than 12 hours in A&E in October. While there is much in the Scottish Futures <a href="https://ourscottishfuture.org/create-a-new-citizens-health-service-to-support-our-nhs/" target="_blank">report</a> to agree with, including patient-centred care, more volunteers doesn’t hack it. While the different NHS systems in the UK should cooperate, their emphasis on this is more political than practical. NHS Scotland is big enough to operate mainly on its own. More UK bureaucracy won't help.</p><p>The latest NHS Scotland delayed discharge <a href="https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/delayed-discharges-in-nhsscotland-monthly/delayed-discharges-in-nhsscotland-monthly-figures-for-october-2022/#section-1" target="_blank">statistics</a> illustrate the need to focus on social care. A delayed discharge occurs when a hospital patient who is clinically ready for discharge from inpatient hospital care continues to occupy a hospital bed beyond the date they are ready for discharge. In October 2022, the average number of beds occupied per day due to delayed discharges was 1,898, the highest figure since the current guidance came into place in July 2016. To put this number in context, the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital in Glasgow has 1677 beds. So, delayed discharge is the equivalent of our largest hospital and then some. The chart below shows this is not a short-term blip.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfkoSzsiQCPc_7Ymj7d7mIPMviXw0ewrbrfdZ9RP1deiT_MB9wHwZ9IQfkf5ocZJT9Pl52e_GeHMarTt-T2KJ9uzGn8x6fDA4mcE04NkvIoV1cLWRJ_MjXtmMrYppWtpLycumoho3igLLhwEeqsdYjT-e1d9linCvbFoZnEPJQ8quLR88DhUDy88TvGA/s6000/IMG_0664.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2400" data-original-width="6000" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfkoSzsiQCPc_7Ymj7d7mIPMviXw0ewrbrfdZ9RP1deiT_MB9wHwZ9IQfkf5ocZJT9Pl52e_GeHMarTt-T2KJ9uzGn8x6fDA4mcE04NkvIoV1cLWRJ_MjXtmMrYppWtpLycumoho3igLLhwEeqsdYjT-e1d9linCvbFoZnEPJQ8quLR88DhUDy88TvGA/w400-h160/IMG_0664.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>There is also a human cost. In October 2022, there were 58,826 days spent in hospitals by people whose discharge was delayed. This is an increase of 17% compared with the number of delayed days in October 2021. No one wants to, or should, stay in a hospital any longer than they need to. This is on top of the financial cost, as hospital beds cost far more than social care provision.</p><p>The latest care inspectorate <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/health/nursing-vacancies-at-heart-of-looming-nhs-scotland-winter-crisis-3944057" target="_blank">statistics</a> showed that 60% of care services that employ nurses reported vacancies, creating a 16% vacancy rate. The staffing issues are not limited to social care. NHS district nurses play a crucial role in supporting people to return home from hospital. The vacancy rate for district nursing reached 16% last month. The Westminster Adult Social Committee has <a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/580/adult-social-care-committee/news/174979/adult-social-care-committee-report-publication/" target="_blank">highlighted</a> similar concerns in England.</p><p>The idea that more privatisation is the solution is risible. As Prem Sikka recently <a href="https://leftfootforward.org/2022/12/privatisation-has-destroyed-the-social-care-sector/" target="_blank">highlighted</a>, social care companies are robbing the public purse, with profit margins of between 37% and 41.7%, and tax dodging is rife. This is the model that people like <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/02/private-healthcare-can-save-nhs-stop-demonising/" target="_blank">Karol Sikora</a> want to expand! In addition, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63923594" target="_blank">self-funding </a>care home residents are now paying 40% more than publicly-funded residents, compared with 24% a decade ago. </p><p>Sadly, the proposed National Care Service in Scotland will do nothing to challenge this, taking even more services from the public sector. Moreover, as the Scottish Parliament Finance Committee <a href="https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/Committees/Report/FPA/2022/12/1/6d72d7c6-84dc-42ef-b39c-b03cfb8fb3ef#Introduction" target="_blank">report </a>highlighted, the costings of this over-centralised service are largely unknown. Still, we do know that it will divert much-needed resources from frontline services. Creating a National Care Service remains the right approach. However, its role should be to create a national framework, with services designed and delivered locally. Implementing organisational change of this magnitude will take a significant amount of time. In the meantime, we need to support the demoralised, tired, and financially stretched frontline staff who immediately need a break, decent pay and a vote of confidence. </p><p>There has been a welcome <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63922257" target="_blank">initiative</a> from former health ministers Alex Neil and Malcolm Chisholm to end zero-hours contracts. However, the response from Social Care Minister Kevin Stewart that companies bidding for government work are evaluated on their fair working practices "where it is relevant and proportionate to do so" - is not good enough.</p><p>Patients overwhelmingly access the NHS through GP services. However, patient surveys show this is becoming increasingly difficult despite GPs delivering more appointments (not all in person) than before the pandemic. Patient satisfaction is 12% down in the last year, with 10% saying it had become more difficult even to contact their GP practice. Some of the byzantine <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/23171995.gp-access-britain-national-joke-nhs-patients/" target="_blank">appointment systems</a> don't help and put excessive pressure on reception staff, who take the brunt of patient dissatisfaction. </p><p>This is primarily an issue for non-urgent treatment; <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23160460.wealthier-patients-should-pay-gp-appointments/" target="_blank">charging </a>better-off patients won’t help address this. While it may discourage some appointments, this short-term gain will result in long-term pain as conditions go undiagnosed, resulting in more severe conditions for the NHS to treat. The solution is recruiting more GPs and other health staff in primary care. GP numbers have fallen from 3,613 in 2019 to 3,494 in 2022. Scottish Government targets focus on headcount, which ignores the growing number of part-time staff. A BMA Scotland survey indicated that 75% are more likely to quit or reduce hours in the coming year due to ‘excessive workload’. Five years on, the deployment of multi-disciplinary teams has fallen short because of staffing shortages. </p><p>Moving away from the expensive small-business model would also help in the longer term. Many more GPs, particularly younger staff, are coming to this view. For example, GPs at the Lothian LMC have recently said that the independent contractor model ‘is no longer fit for purpose.’</p><p>The NHS as an institution rightly attracts almost universal support, primarily because we all rely on it. That doesn't mean it is sacrosanct, and it is perfectly reasonable to debate reform. However, we must be wary of those who use reform as a trojan horse to promote their ideological agenda. The founding principles of an NHS free at the point of need, funded by general taxation, is the best way to organise healthcare. The NHS's main problem is the absence of adequately funded social care and primary care. That should be our focus right now. Anything else is a distraction.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-66534891255001472632022-12-05T17:43:00.001+00:002022-12-05T17:43:33.582+00:00Rebalancing the UK<p> Big-picture reform may not be on everyone's list of priorities, but governments should be able to tackle big long-term projects while also addressing the immediate issues. Unfortunately, the short-termism of so many politicians has undermined the UK for far too long. In this context, we now have the long-awaited <a href="https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Commission-on-the-UKs-Future.pdf" target="_blank">report </a>of Gordon Brown's Commission on the UK's Future. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCOuj8LTtJ1Za2bo1U9QohY_51fft5w5quAIE8yFOaChEfKW-BO7QkOXnFaf6dtl76E4j48-pSI5Arc4MoK3z3Z6EmnVtHcM1ivfY_Tv6Vb6dMD9SCqJHMP-FGylg7E_QNuX6bng5muZRzYrHNhwNjDMvQqcbIX9r4hJ_ubk5mAYgR-ufj_xeChoRNfQ/s2368/Screenshot%202022-12-05%20at%2016.16.23.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2368" data-original-width="1666" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCOuj8LTtJ1Za2bo1U9QohY_51fft5w5quAIE8yFOaChEfKW-BO7QkOXnFaf6dtl76E4j48-pSI5Arc4MoK3z3Z6EmnVtHcM1ivfY_Tv6Vb6dMD9SCqJHMP-FGylg7E_QNuX6bng5muZRzYrHNhwNjDMvQqcbIX9r4hJ_ubk5mAYgR-ufj_xeChoRNfQ/w141-h200/Screenshot%202022-12-05%20at%2016.16.23.png" width="141" /></a></div><br /><p>The report starts with a persuasive case for change. The country was in crisis long before the pandemic and the economic consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There are always excuses for not tackling the big issues, and successive governments have ducked them. Yes, we have an incompetent and ideologically driven government that has failed to deliver acceptable levels of investment, economic success and good-paying jobs. But, as the report says, the way our country is run is preventing us from making the changes we need for a better future.</p><p>Few could argue with the analysis in the paper of the challenges. These include the scourge of inequality, loss of trust in politics, and centralisation. Britain hasn’t taken back control as promised with Brexit – Westminster and Whitehall have. The same is true in Scotland by the Scottish Government. While there have been global factors, the UK has handled them less well, as this chart shows:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRxJ8agJDxczxg4NqCm4B2qP_lc2CzLiHmUlbglg0OCrE41XTFXBVLa68vb8MZS8oY9QqZfdquHqmzO-1ipKrCEWem3j4oxcR84KhSBoiMAtSRyQgSHKRfZax8qjHTH_9HPEF5NbFul7W45mGc9jlgYg0NL2YALQimqR0MgPaZRPrgL0f6OEgskfCftA/s1526/Screenshot%202022-12-05%20at%2016.28.05.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="1526" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRxJ8agJDxczxg4NqCm4B2qP_lc2CzLiHmUlbglg0OCrE41XTFXBVLa68vb8MZS8oY9QqZfdquHqmzO-1ipKrCEWem3j4oxcR84KhSBoiMAtSRyQgSHKRfZax8qjHTH_9HPEF5NbFul7W45mGc9jlgYg0NL2YALQimqR0MgPaZRPrgL0f6OEgskfCftA/w400-h229/Screenshot%202022-12-05%20at%2016.28.05.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>And while economic growth is not all we should be concerned about, at least on current definitions, our relative position has crashed.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhILAxxF05EPOUp0ifz20rK37LRvXOXoo6p6mhD8r6FwEPeSerXThc5G3mhj5AX5RKg9wnwfYeC1NLXVAWRreRuzSIon98yzy91OoSIxEHUSAwL086ShrYHlxQtkf2fsvSEt7dmyHP4oWXI/s1102/Screenshot+2022-12-05+at+16.29.17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1102" data-original-width="1046" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhILAxxF05EPOUp0ifz20rK37LRvXOXoo6p6mhD8r6FwEPeSerXThc5G3mhj5AX5RKg9wnwfYeC1NLXVAWRreRuzSIon98yzy91OoSIxEHUSAwL086ShrYHlxQtkf2fsvSEt7dmyHP4oWXI/s320/Screenshot+2022-12-05+at+16.29.17.png" width="304" /></a></div><p>This is particularly the case for workers. Pay and living standards for most people in Britain have not improved, and taxes have risen to pay for worse public services, making this a lost decade for British families. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2rTN7FmP6pK29SFRB1eXpqoAMHEKwtZrXlIhYNsKZaZjLUavp-2m_FSDaFRlDYcokr4Z-6cRe5QfuntQoidAzelNhVEMGvhWOvsXl5960lSKqFPqBu6jf0wtSQBKUakjy5Sip_pCG1CqQK1kgodccTRNmm0qyv0o2P72SAzt-uEjoDUkAy1HCqcG2YQ/s1506/Screenshot%202022-12-05%20at%2016.30.57.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1506" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2rTN7FmP6pK29SFRB1eXpqoAMHEKwtZrXlIhYNsKZaZjLUavp-2m_FSDaFRlDYcokr4Z-6cRe5QfuntQoidAzelNhVEMGvhWOvsXl5960lSKqFPqBu6jf0wtSQBKUakjy5Sip_pCG1CqQK1kgodccTRNmm0qyv0o2P72SAzt-uEjoDUkAy1HCqcG2YQ/w400-h224/Screenshot%202022-12-05%20at%2016.30.57.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>There are some broad solutions proposed to address these issues. Unsurprisingly, there is an emphasis on shared UK purpose and values while recognising that people in the nations of the UK feel morally and politically abandoned by the present UK government. So, the report argues that powers must be decentralised to the right place - in the nations, regions and communities. While there is more detail about local government in England, because this is devolved, many of the reforms proposed would also be welcomed in Scotland as an antidote to SNP centralisation. They reflect the arguments I made in a Reid Foundation <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/portfolio-2/public-service-reform/" target="_blank">paper</a> a few years ago. My only exception is the obsession with directly elected Mayors. There is nothing democratic about centralising power in the hands of one person.</p><p>There are reforms proposed for Westminster, cleaning up the corruption that undermines trust in politics and Britain’s voice in the world. A long overdue plan to replace the House of Lords with a new second chamber of Parliament: an Assembly of the Nations and Regions. We should ignore the Lords who oppose this on <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/04/keir-starmer-warned-by-labour-peers-not-to-waste-political-capital-on-lords-reform" target="_blank">spurious</a> grounds, acting like Turkeys who don’t want to vote for Christmas. </p><p>On Scottish devolution, the focus is on embedding the constitutional settlement, strengthening the Sewel Convention and introducing mechanisms to improve cooperation across the UK. While devolving powers is not the only way to enhance devolution, the principle of subsidiarity demands that powers be devolved to the lowest practical level. It is here that the report is weakest. Gordon's Treasury orthodoxy screams out of the pages, with the resistance to prudential borrowing powers that apply to local authorities but not the devolved administrations. New taxes can only be introduced by agreement with the UK government, which jars with the principles the paper claims to espouse. Today's STUC <a href="https://stuc.org.uk/files/Reports/Scotland_Demands_Better_Fairer_Taxes_for_a_Fairer_%20Future.pdf" target="_blank">paper</a> is much better on public finance issues.</p><p>On specific powers, devolving job centres is fine, but employment law is only to be shared. And what about drug policy and immigration? The Red Paper Collective has set out <a href="https://redpapercollective.net/?page_id=162" target="_blank">the case</a> for devolving these powers clearly. Of course, all these should be exercised in cooperation when they can have implications for the rest of the UK. But the starting point is to recognise that not all parts of the UK have similar problems or require the same solutions. </p><p>This report does offer a new approach that should appeal to the 40% of those living in Scotland who are not entrenched in either side of the national obsession. However, it could have been bolder in key areas, which also fall some way short of Scottish Labour’s policy positions on further devolution. Electoral reform is another issue that has been ducked, despite the recent UK conference decision.</p><p>Overall, we should thank Gordon Brown for embarking on this process because it takes someone of his stature to ensure this debate gets a hearing. While the report has weaknesses, the proposals would at least help rebalance the UK politically and economically.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-28908194426377934082022-11-23T11:35:00.000+00:002022-11-23T11:35:00.930+00:00From the national to the local<p>Yesterday, I was speaking at the <a href="https://www.plutobooks.com/9780745345062/a-new-scotland/" target="_blank">book launch</a> of '<b><i>A New Scotland: Building an Equal, Fair and Sustainable Society</i></b>'. I have previously <a href="http://unisondave.blogspot.com/2022/05/a-new-scotland.html" target="_blank">written</a> about the themes in the book, which I picked up in my Afterword. These go beyond traditional economic thinking to include inequality, public services, and economic and political governance. While there is plenty of challenging analysis, there is also optimism that a better Scotland is possible.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZJrW9Rm30wYQpDtYLMwCU_GdTBT5FRgaSgv8ZMkVWlAPt5tXS8k5CpVUerTdfEK7mOUCO37NZA2u_9Wi1jjVOgleCOXWW3uNNuLmi24Yr7IlYnqEFLHyZLw8YGROWKEUdez84Il9AmdL-MqJCBJj2-a4sBQBhzdFlTLJ0JRIWH7M9M-awcLoSlxcU5g/s648/5173-2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="422" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZJrW9Rm30wYQpDtYLMwCU_GdTBT5FRgaSgv8ZMkVWlAPt5tXS8k5CpVUerTdfEK7mOUCO37NZA2u_9Wi1jjVOgleCOXWW3uNNuLmi24Yr7IlYnqEFLHyZLw8YGROWKEUdez84Il9AmdL-MqJCBJj2-a4sBQBhzdFlTLJ0JRIWH7M9M-awcLoSlxcU5g/s320/5173-2.jpg" width="208" /></a></div><br /><p>My substantive contribution to the book was on local economics. There is plenty of commentary on macroeconomic policy in Scotland, not least within the confines of our interminable constitutional debate. However, there is far less analysis of how our over-centralised political and economic governance undermines the local economy. </p><p>One of the issues I cover is the importance of ownership. This is a crucial issue with Community Wealth Building because local ownership is less likely to bolt when the cold economic winds blow. This week the Herald, in conjunction with The Ferret, ran a timely series of <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/23137619.owns-scotlands-cities-tax-havens-scottish-shopping-centres/" target="_blank">articles</a> on ownership in Scotland. </p><p>Their research looked at 23 major shopping centres in Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee, Aberdeen, Inverness, Perth, Stirling and Dunfermline, excluding retail parks. They found 18 involved ownership structures that made some use of companies registered to tax havens. In other words, more than three out of four of Scotland's largest city shopping centres are owned in or linked to tax havens. Tax dodging deprives governments of tax revenues, increases inequalities and undermines smaller and domestic businesses. As Paul Sweeney MSP said, “The levels of influence held by these multinational organisations is as unsustainable as it is unbelievable. For years, city centres and high streets have been left chasing their tails because large shopping centres have had carte-blanche to reconfigure the very fabric of our major cities.”</p><p>This isn’t just an issue for the retail sector. While the majority of cultural assets in Scotland’s cities remain in the hands of local councils and charities, others are not. These include venues such as the Edinburgh Playhouse, King Tut’s Wah Wah Hut, and Glasgow’s King’s Theatre, owned by global companies with links to offshore tax havens. In addition, cinemas and theatres are at risk of being taken over by tax haven-linked private equity companies.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/23143188.owns-urban-scotland-controlling-scotlands-infrastructure/" target="_blank">research</a> also found that Scotland’s three largest airports and some major sea ports are linked to offshore entities and that a firm building Scotland’s digital infrastructure is ultimately owned by a private equity fund. One of the firms building broadband <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/23143205.scotlands-broadband-builder-linked-israeli-spyware/" target="_blank">services</a> across Scotland is backed by a state-owned Emirati company, which invested in an Israeli firm behind controversial spyware called Pegasus. The spyware is alleged to have been deployed by foreign governments against dissidents, journalists, diplomats and members of the clergy.</p><p>The Scottish Government has a welcome commitment to a 'wellbeing economy' and supports, in principle, Community Wealth Building. However, if this is to be more than just another glossy document full of ambition, it must be backed up by action. As IPPR Scotland puts it, “The Scottish Government has a stated ambition to create a ‘wellbeing economy’, built on inclusive growth and community wealth building. That needs to see wealth not just being created in our local economies but retained there, too.”</p><p>In the book, I highlight the local initiatives that could help to regenerate our town centres and High Streets. These include creating spaces for small businesses and cooperatives and 20-minute neighbourhoods that promote a circular economy. And most importantly, investing in the social infrastructure, like <a href="http://unisondave.blogspot.com/2022/10/i-have-always-imagined-that-paradise.html" target="_blank">libraries</a> and leisure facilities, which binds our communities together. All of these actions can be delivered under devolved powers. A better Scotland recognises that not all the solutions to our challenges can be dictated from the centre. They must be developed and organised from communities of interest and place because ownership matters.</p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-88709463693512234282022-11-07T16:38:00.001+00:002022-11-07T16:38:17.519+00:00Action on health inequalities<p>As the UK and Scottish Governments start the process towards another round of Austerity, we need to remember the impact this will have on health inequalities. Those in Scotland’s most deprived areas are 3.9 times more likely to die from an avoidable death than those in the least deprived areas. The leading <a href="https://theferret.scot/how-stark-are-scotlands-health-inequalities/" target="_blank">causes </a>of avoidable deaths were cancers, circulatory system diseases and alcohol and drug-related issues, and Covid-19. In addition, life expectancy in Scotland has been two years lower than in other UK countries for decades.</p><p>Mortality rates in higher-income countries have steadily improved for more than a century. However, these improvements started to stall after the last round of Austerity in 2012, actually increasing in the most deprived areas. In 2019, the UK ranked 24th in the OECD in <a href="https://ifs.org.uk/inequality/health-inequalities/" target="_blank">life expectancy,</a> behind all other English-speaking countries (except the US) and nearly all countries of Western Europe.</p><p>These trends were noticeable before the pandemic, which has exacerbated them, but there has been no return to pre-pandemic levels. As a GCPH/University of Glasgow <a href="https://www.gcph.co.uk/publications/1036_resetting_the_course_for_population_health" target="_blank">report </a>highlighted, ‘there has been a stalling of improvement overall, accompanied by increasing death rates among large sections of the population living in more socioeconomically deprived areas. This is hugely worrying. Put simply, we should not see such trends in a wealthy society such as the UK.’ Austerity is evidenced as making an important and substantial contribution to these trends.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn3YoXIt7mt4NSm8BVYmc0GVnGydJOcoOW1ePCdGz51c4y96kVPPRef-xqEDxoMCYYuVDFzJDOh5Fd2mng1A7k66A9862bSHIqKQ0FgcctQb-eHfN33hA0uAIKfKgeYwflLHpEv2X_a_xaJaRE53W4byb-j4NiNZln6KyqD6PcEMyk_imc-8yFBwcfyA/s896/Screenshot%202022-11-07%20at%2015.00.21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="896" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn3YoXIt7mt4NSm8BVYmc0GVnGydJOcoOW1ePCdGz51c4y96kVPPRef-xqEDxoMCYYuVDFzJDOh5Fd2mng1A7k66A9862bSHIqKQ0FgcctQb-eHfN33hA0uAIKfKgeYwflLHpEv2X_a_xaJaRE53W4byb-j4NiNZln6KyqD6PcEMyk_imc-8yFBwcfyA/w400-h289/Screenshot%202022-11-07%20at%2015.00.21.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>While drug-related deaths, in Scotland in particular, are an important factor, they are not the sole or majority contributor to stalled mortality trends. Changes in rates can be observed even when drug-related deaths are excluded, and the increase in drug-related deaths is likely to have been partly caused by the same underlying factors associated with the overall mortality changes.</p><p>An independent <a href="https://www.health.org.uk/what-we-do/a-healthier-uk-population/mobilising-action-for-healthy-lives/health-inequalities-in-scotland-an-independent-review" target="_blank">review </a>by the Health Foundation found large and sometimes widening health inequalities among children living in Scotland’s most and least deprived communities. They found that by 2016-18, infant mortality was 2.6 times higher for babies born to women in the most deprived areas compared to those of the least deprived, compared to a difference of 1.8 times in 2000-02. A key issue is obesity, which by 2019/20, was around 6% among the least deprived five-year-olds compared to roughly 13% in the most deprived. In 2001/2 there was no gap. This will not be resolved simply by targeting behaviours because there is no difference in physical activity by deprivation. There are differences in diet, and a healthy balanced diet is considerably more expensive calorie for calorie and therefore increasingly inaccessible to those on the lowest incomes.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM9Qr2pZfHI8bPzhRId7f3EGrcc5VxqPxEAon3RboDWwn6m8PACWa1HyMihK6-PcSG_cbPQZXc9G-zZgAbgNByQ-A9ZFiF5NJ1fZTtNyJCtOFE7X1WnPNvB0zydIuZwpmr0-dbnj35nnSy39IVP4qsJZoFfIvXHa-lgsBVkT9o495qx8-IYG9ZsXWZ7A/s1314/Screenshot%202022-11-07%20at%2015.07.08.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1084" data-original-width="1314" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM9Qr2pZfHI8bPzhRId7f3EGrcc5VxqPxEAon3RboDWwn6m8PACWa1HyMihK6-PcSG_cbPQZXc9G-zZgAbgNByQ-A9ZFiF5NJ1fZTtNyJCtOFE7X1WnPNvB0zydIuZwpmr0-dbnj35nnSy39IVP4qsJZoFfIvXHa-lgsBVkT9o495qx8-IYG9ZsXWZ7A/w400-h330/Screenshot%202022-11-07%20at%2015.07.08.png" width="400" /></a></div><p>Child poverty has long-term implications. People who experience deprivation as children are more likely to choose to do things that, although pleasurable in the short term, are unhealthy in the long run. This includes overeating, taking drugs, smoking cigarettes and gambling. This can help to <a href="https://theconversation.com/deprivation-in-childhood-linked-to-impulsive-behaviour-in-adulthood-new-study-190858" target="_blank">explain</a> why some people go on to become addicts while other people can avoid some of the more harmful effects of drugs and alcohol.</p><p>Politicians are failing to address the underlying causes of inequality. In Scotland, we have plenty of analysis but limited action. Audit Scotland recently <a href="https://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/publications/briefing-tackling-child-poverty" target="_blank">reported</a> that ‘the Scottish Government has not yet demonstrated a clear shift to preventing child poverty.’ Others, like Suella Braverman, seek to cover it up by focusing on immigration. Public anger at a lack of affordable housing and secure work, declining living standards and austerity has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/31/politicians-inequality-britain-refugees-manston-asylum-seekers" target="_blank">redirected</a> at the caricatured foreigner. Instead, we should be focusing on the economy and public services with actions such as those suggested in the GCPH report, including:</p><p>•<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Changing the economic structures that lead to immense wealth and income inequalities.</p><p>•<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Increase all benefits and tax credits in line with inflation every year, and put in place a one-off increase now to compensate for the loss of real income since 2010. Using devolved fiscal powers to top up reserved benefits and reverse UK cuts. Create new devolved benefits and increase existing benefits to support those in low-income households.</p><p>•<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Improve the availability of ‘good work’ by increasing in-work benefits, strengthening trade unions, minimising health and safety risks and increasing the statutory living wage to the Real Living Wage.</p><p>•<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Address tax evasion and avoidance and increase taxation of wealth, assets and corporate profits.</p><p>•<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Increase public sector funding for preventative services, and reinstate cuts in public services, particularly local government.</p><p>•<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Eliminate fuel poverty through action on housing insulation and heating and grow a social rented housing sector that is accessible, affordable and provides secure tenancies.</p><p>More than ten years ago, the visionary Christie Commission highlighted the impact of inequalities on the economy and our public services. They recommended more collaborative working, preventative spending, and building services around people and communities. Sadly, we see greater centralisation, silo working and little preventative spending. So, it was good to see the recent<a href="https://sp-bpr-en-prod-cdnep.azureedge.net/published/HSCS/2022/9/28/c2d290be-c302-4d47-8443-90394391f0bd-4/HSCS062022R11.pdf" target="_blank"> report</a> of the Scottish Parliament’s Health Committee on health inequalities reference the report. What we now need is some focus on delivering its recommendations. Tackling health inequalities should be the priority of all governments.</p><p> </p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-39663229443409372852022-10-07T12:22:00.001+01:002022-10-07T12:22:13.841+01:00I have always imagined that paradise will be a kind of library<p> This is one of my favourite quotes about libraries, written by the Argentinian writer Jorge Luis Borges. It seems particularly appropriate during Libraries Week. Coincidentally, I contributed to a pan-European study this week on libraries, highlighting some of the challenges facing the public library service in Scotland and the UK.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinA7Cwm1qS4Mm3qnq6kcl4IIttvX9H-b5n6dRi-qh-4vg0Wtc6pEWyLQspKbOd7-n_KmptLuav9BdonMBwAs2Xewx_Qh43MCom2vMZyysdGo1zzURe9C0LsyRCI1EXVoqH60i6IHXcYPsYswYkN8oQ-Qw6tM15XWDp37rV4j94ECi8xYEcj7bC6XTsaw/s950/CILIP_LW-2022_Logo_English.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="237" data-original-width="950" height="80" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinA7Cwm1qS4Mm3qnq6kcl4IIttvX9H-b5n6dRi-qh-4vg0Wtc6pEWyLQspKbOd7-n_KmptLuav9BdonMBwAs2Xewx_Qh43MCom2vMZyysdGo1zzURe9C0LsyRCI1EXVoqH60i6IHXcYPsYswYkN8oQ-Qw6tM15XWDp37rV4j94ECi8xYEcj7bC6XTsaw/s320/CILIP_LW-2022_Logo_English.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>I am very fortunate to own several thousand books in what I call my library and a frequent target for my wife's decluttering initiatives! However, it isn't a library. It is a collection of books, even if they are carefully organised and entered into a database. A public library is much more than a collection of books, more than a service; it is an integral part of the community. What I called in my Reid Foundation <a href="https://reidfoundation.scot/2020/08/building-stronger-communities/" target="_blank">paper</a>, <i>Building Stronger Communities</i>, social infrastructure.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhPF6PIIDj-KVF_0sqq-bsteohNZKkiy7y_kiL9xp808E4m3p84vb7r_mNISvcjbgocuNNgU9y-mwr5-770xNTRp_vuFb2vrKYHbu0RxcfmqJ4GPEWmqNQSv0vPrVFhlHupHQtawppSEDCOtEG1DbCgAhjRDSY2t3IS6f4sMGzmiwSwUNqGvmhMuffcQ/s940/Quote-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="788" data-original-width="940" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhPF6PIIDj-KVF_0sqq-bsteohNZKkiy7y_kiL9xp808E4m3p84vb7r_mNISvcjbgocuNNgU9y-mwr5-770xNTRp_vuFb2vrKYHbu0RxcfmqJ4GPEWmqNQSv0vPrVFhlHupHQtawppSEDCOtEG1DbCgAhjRDSY2t3IS6f4sMGzmiwSwUNqGvmhMuffcQ/s320/Quote-6.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>Despite my 'significant' collection of books, I am a member of the British Library, the National Library of Scotland, the Mitchell Library in Glasgow, and arguably most importantly, my local library. I am not keen on the saying 'use it or lose it', although I understand the importance of demonstrating community support for public services. I always have a book on loan because even in my small local library, I can find a book that I wouldn't have bought, which stretches my thinking into new fields.</p><p>Under the Public Libraries Consolidation (Scotland) Act, as amended in schedule 21 of the Local Government (Scotland) Act 1973, local authorities in Scotland have a statutory duty to provide "adequate library facilities" for all residents in their area. The problem is that 'adequate' is not defined. I recall seeking counsel's opinion on a possible legal challenge some years ago, only to be told that the test could probably be met by one public library in the local authority area. There are some local acts on libraries, but they are no more substantial. Several local authorities have also outsourced their libraries to culture trusts, further blurring the statutory duty.</p><p>Like other local government services, libraries are under financial pressure. 83 public libraries have closed in Scotland since 2009/10, with spending cut by 30 per cent over the same period. This is despite yearly visitor numbers increasing by over 40 per cent. Many more libraries have cut their opening hours and reduced staff. Around 20% (700+) of all public libraries in the UK have no professional staff. They are spun as 'volunteer led', a euphemism for blackmailing communities into running libraries under the threat of closure. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIz5VrK4_lOQCQvO1DBR7Fs6KlGTj5HOUboOYQ8ComNcaKqCqRlZR83emvnL_baxAgypk62Tk33rNKRZ9ST58AFXoFKuO5q0OW9zhr5bP5wXVuLP7dR39aGNm78AexLZ8ErvuSAT_X2hdXiqx10Hv0qcUDkDsrJhrxiJ9p-XtfRvGogS-cXQmVHTz0cg/s968/Screenshot%202022-10-07%20at%2011.41.30.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="968" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIz5VrK4_lOQCQvO1DBR7Fs6KlGTj5HOUboOYQ8ComNcaKqCqRlZR83emvnL_baxAgypk62Tk33rNKRZ9ST58AFXoFKuO5q0OW9zhr5bP5wXVuLP7dR39aGNm78AexLZ8ErvuSAT_X2hdXiqx10Hv0qcUDkDsrJhrxiJ9p-XtfRvGogS-cXQmVHTz0cg/s320/Screenshot%202022-10-07%20at%2011.41.30.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>There has been a welcome move towards abolishing library book fines, although the <a href="https://blog.librarydata.uk/library-fines/" target="_blank">data </a>is limited. Glasgow Life has <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/20258068.glasgow-library-book-fines-abolished/" target="_blank">recently</a> done this, arguing that it reflects a growing global movement to abolish late book fines, recognised as a barrier to participation, particularly for families from low-income households. A progressive move after they controversially closed several libraries, later reopened after great community campaigns.</p><p>The importance of professional staff is reflected in the wide range of services and activities in our libraries. It also provides an objective voice in selecting books and other resources. I am sure there would be no shortage of well-meaning middle-class people in my town who would be prepared to help run the library. However, they would have little idea of the wider community's needs. This is becoming a genuine concern in the USA as books are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/sep/20/librarians-banned-books-attacks-library" target="_blank">banned</a> because some ideologue doesn't like the content. My experience as a UNISON official was that librarians made fearsome negotiators, always well prepared. A skill that even Donald Trump is discovering as he faces legal action for keeping files from US government librarians. I am also in awe of the <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/how-ukraines-librarians-mobilised-to-fight-the-russian-culture-war-3796419" target="_blank">work</a> being done by "Crazy Ukrainian librarians" in the most difficult of circumstances.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwg51FBtF4JpUtVGXlB4bIWNUxYfKCgVW7aC4GFjEYu-hsgKWi-8IIyWdInwH8oAaxhIU4LSc6Jsv_V_o0F8TIrSuEwEGfBgotJBOwxoB6bvBIJXTruNAdJALAR1VQ9d4FOSQgo_9hGrObqT07m5t45M_1E4OeZF4yXnnDOOm8BgKPZIMn_CQVPWNCOA/s968/Screenshot%202022-10-07%20at%2011.52.09.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="968" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwg51FBtF4JpUtVGXlB4bIWNUxYfKCgVW7aC4GFjEYu-hsgKWi-8IIyWdInwH8oAaxhIU4LSc6Jsv_V_o0F8TIrSuEwEGfBgotJBOwxoB6bvBIJXTruNAdJALAR1VQ9d4FOSQgo_9hGrObqT07m5t45M_1E4OeZF4yXnnDOOm8BgKPZIMn_CQVPWNCOA/s320/Screenshot%202022-10-07%20at%2011.52.09.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />The broader value of public libraries as a community resource is being recognised in the concept of 'warm banks' in response to the energy crisis. Librarians have always recognised this well before the current crisis. The consumer champion Martin Lewis has commissioned a best practice guide on this. A recent survey showed that 60% are actively considering participating in a "warm bank" scheme, offering heat and shelter to vulnerable people, as another way to help during the cost of living crisis.<p></p><p>In England, Baroness Elizabeth Sanderson has been <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/baroness-sanderson-to-help-develop-new-public-libraries-strategy" target="_blank">appointed</a> by the UK Government to help develop a new strategy to ensure public libraries provide the best possible service for their communities. There have been some understandably cynical responses to this initiative, but we will see. Almost one in five (18.6%) children in England between the ages of five and eight do not have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/sep/02/one-in-five-uk-children-do-not-own-books-of-their-own" target="_blank">access to books</a> at home. Authors and publishers have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/sep/07/liz-truss-urged-to-invest-in-libraries-and-abolish-tax-on-audiobooks" target="_blank">urged</a> the new prime minister to abolish "the last remaining tax on reading", and ensure schools have funding for author visits and invest in libraries.</p><p>So, please use Libraries Week to show your support for a vital public service. And challenge your elected representatives to strengthen the statutory duty, employ more library staff, invest in resources and keep our libraries open.</p>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-87265635411595950032022-09-21T17:02:00.001+01:002022-09-21T17:02:34.248+01:00Governing With Purpose - a guide for charity trustees<p> As someone who works with and serves on several third-sector boards, I have sometimes wondered why anyone does this. External criticism and internal squabbling are not unknown, and thanks are not always forthcoming. Moreover, when personal time has rarely been so squeezed, it isn't easy to get people to volunteer for this role, even if around a million people in the UK have risen to the challenge. Larger charities provide training when you become a trustee, but it can be limited for smaller ones, leaving the new trustee slightly overwhelmed.</p><p>In this context, <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Governing-Purpose-brilliant-charity-trustees-ebook/dp/B0B5RZ5Z72/ref=sr_1_1?crid=4YE53AF3KULK&keywords=governing+with+purpose&qid=1663775621&sprefix=governing+with+a+purpose%2Caps%2C63&sr=8-1" target="_blank">a new book</a> about governance in the charity sector should be welcomed. Brian Cavanagh, who has extensive experience in the public and third sectors, has written <i><b>Governing with Purpose: How to lead a brilliant board – a guide for charity trustees</b></i>. This is not a subject exactly brimming with previous publications. There are plenty of corporate governance books, but few focus on the charity sector.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAYQSwJjHw-gPFdHmHXsb3xjtlCZWq70XHwnHxP21OEHfzSV9qkirV-svyd1n9CvQP0ev2xUmeLsf-VOc4pnOheOPGByaQhfQrkbf2RVc_GPui9h_hwErwsi0hBD7XoK7XZHVLhKJ-Ewh4EAsIxcvflELfLWpum-r1BPL6W5whY6zkYE2yoVYEQjq9Bw/s500/51riuOaJWYL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="322" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAYQSwJjHw-gPFdHmHXsb3xjtlCZWq70XHwnHxP21OEHfzSV9qkirV-svyd1n9CvQP0ev2xUmeLsf-VOc4pnOheOPGByaQhfQrkbf2RVc_GPui9h_hwErwsi0hBD7XoK7XZHVLhKJ-Ewh4EAsIxcvflELfLWpum-r1BPL6W5whY6zkYE2yoVYEQjq9Bw/s320/51riuOaJWYL.jpg" width="206" /></a></div><br /><p>Like Brian, I have seen examples of good governance and, sadly, some pretty poor ones. Charities have collapsed due to poor governance, and others grind on with little regard for their founding purpose. As many charities have become providers of services paid by the state, they sometimes lose their cutting edge as advocates for change, believing that they must acquiesce to government policy. It is not unheard of for a charity Chair or CEO to get a phone call from a Scottish Government minister after public criticism. As Jenny Starling said in an <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/charity-sector-grenfell-housing-women-failure/" target="_blank">Open Democracy</a> piece yesterday, 'Too fixated on doing ‘good’ and being polite, charities have stopped fighting for social justice.’</p><p>The book starts with first principles. What is good governance, and why it matters. Focusing on the big picture, vision, values and strategy rather than the minutiae of day-to-day operations. I have mentored a few senior staff in charities from other sectors, who have been surprised at the level of detail board members wanted to engage in. On the other hand, I have seen boards that nod through whatever is presented to them. Brian uses the concept of governing with purpose to suggest a different approach. He promotes the idea of governance as leadership, graphically portraying the interconnectedness as the governance square. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5CdX9CI8mtNhoANfgaDTmxtMuAGRNlsHrBfaHQT_TQn6mTtd9RKeUh0snBb5PJFAWIxjCB2Z8oi7PjJw_noVUqV6JgvmZNbJ0_8yE18Ko8Kjb0po60NwjkXlDJQvpM2P5XdVIti1hh-DYGpyihITriPQS4Q90TlLYZtAF2brS6jzOKzHVlaQBzZp0Xw/s1104/Screenshot%202022-09-21%20at%2016.06.34.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="698" data-original-width="1104" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5CdX9CI8mtNhoANfgaDTmxtMuAGRNlsHrBfaHQT_TQn6mTtd9RKeUh0snBb5PJFAWIxjCB2Z8oi7PjJw_noVUqV6JgvmZNbJ0_8yE18Ko8Kjb0po60NwjkXlDJQvpM2P5XdVIti1hh-DYGpyihITriPQS4Q90TlLYZtAF2brS6jzOKzHVlaQBzZp0Xw/s320/Screenshot%202022-09-21%20at%2016.06.34.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>This isn't just a theoretical concept. He goes on to give practical examples of how to develop good governance. The regulatory framework is not forgotten either. Something that could be stronger in Scotland. The chapter on strategy versus scrutiny is also helpful.</p><p>There are chapters on the roles of the Chair and CEO and the importance of the relationship between them. Again, in my experience, that can range between acquiescence and micro-management. I recently supported one charity when the Chair said, 'I could do her job better.' She might well have, but that was missing the point. This book has some good advice for both parties in this relationship and practical tips on how to Chair a meeting and related duties. Getting the board to focus on the 'why' of the charity is good advice.</p><p>The final section of the book is entitled ‘Re-imagining purpose’. As Brian puts it, ‘It includes bringing energy and dynamism to drive the charity forward. It is also about ensuring the ethos and purpose are not just words, but are put into practice, across the board and the rest of the charity.’ This includes stating uncomfortable truths, particularly when there needs to be alignment between what the organisation says it stands for and how it puts that into practice. The strength of trustees is that they can bring a diverse range of lived experience and expertise to the role. The final chapter in this section highlights the importance of recruitment, succession planning and board renewal. We can probably all think of the board member, or Chair, who has been there too long and recruits more people like them.</p><p>I found very little in this book that I disagreed with, and I tried! You might find some concepts a bit theoretical, but they are backed up with practical examples. Hopefully, it will spur some focus on governance in these difficult times for the sector. Unfortunately, I noticed the Scottish Government-backed 'Good Governance Award' had attracted <a href="https://goodgovernanceaward.org.uk/current-award-holders/" target="_blank">very few takers</a>.</p><p>For all the sage advice in this book, we should remember that being a trustee on a board should also be an enjoyable and rewarding experience. This book should help you achieve that goal and do some good on the way.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8958311231520405027.post-15122795420325343932022-08-16T16:29:00.000+01:002022-08-16T16:29:36.592+01:00Tackling drug deaths - Scotland's national disgrace<p>Scotland's drug-related death statistics are a national disgrace. In 2021, 1,330 people in Scotland died due to a drug overdose. That was more than three times the rate of the rest of the UK and the <a href="https://theferret.scot/ffs-explains-scottish-drug-deaths-compare-uk-eu/?pk_campaign=feed&pk_kwd=ffs-explains-scottish-drug-deaths-compare-uk-eu&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ffs_explains_scottish_drug_deaths_and_how_they_compare_with_uk_and_europe_daily_alert_at_2022_07_29_from_the_ferret&utm_term=2022-08-16" target="_blank">highest</a> in Europe. As the chart below shows, this isn't a new problem.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgndrz_gLN-dKC58U7gdJDuM709a5E_IYuxgDrHcCuJLywyItCOhA7rNuzWlWD2ZibB0p_-0DGzqcfxWf2ljizGRtuxAJVRq_xP2pOIcsfoiOFvTGguf8rRPBp0GLhxZuMfsBaJeqoqfQoiYURR28NLXwsb5FJCAdcC5hmahQYNJkWD5UgMSf2R0tcumw/s1610/Screenshot%202022-08-16%20at%2015.44.29.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1610" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgndrz_gLN-dKC58U7gdJDuM709a5E_IYuxgDrHcCuJLywyItCOhA7rNuzWlWD2ZibB0p_-0DGzqcfxWf2ljizGRtuxAJVRq_xP2pOIcsfoiOFvTGguf8rRPBp0GLhxZuMfsBaJeqoqfQoiYURR28NLXwsb5FJCAdcC5hmahQYNJkWD5UgMSf2R0tcumw/w400-h255/Screenshot%202022-08-16%20at%2015.44.29.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>This month I was looking at drugs policy when drafting a response to Paul Sweeney MSP's <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/bills-and-laws/proposals-for-bills/proposed-drugs-death-prevention-scotland-bill" target="_blank">proposal</a> for a Drug Death Prevention Bill. This will enable the establishment of overdose prevention centres, including establishing a licensing framework for centres to prevent death due to drug overdose; and create a new body for the oversight of drug policy development and implementation to improve health by preventing and reducing drug use, harm and related death. He argues that preventable death due to drug overdose has become one of Scotland's major public health emergencies. Urgent practical action is required to address this health crisis, and this Bill is intended to be part of the solution, one contribution to a multi-faceted effort to tackle the problem.</p><p>Drug use is inextricably linked to poverty; it is not simply a 'lifestyle choice'. People living in the most deprived communities in Scotland are around 18 times more likely to experience problem drug use compared to people in the least deprived communities. As the Poverty Alliance argues, <i>"That means redesigning our economy so that people are able to access decent work, and investing in our social security system and public services, so that people have the income they need to live in dignity and security."</i></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyMn5VsMmAykq-KulQaOhTYhSPpERQfsrtuKIcvCTu-1s1nJ-JzIMJIZQQwYI6iovNB9C_roA3OrMBWoDXpGiQK_r4rszwL0gjm239DZe21DKf3jTFiiJcOIBkx_xz31O3o3Ntr5Htr0YZ2FQhHn_LFesTEtxDhLJNoc09DVlrPTC4qFSVZmJ_hdKJmA/s768/Website-Featured-Image-Template-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="768" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyMn5VsMmAykq-KulQaOhTYhSPpERQfsrtuKIcvCTu-1s1nJ-JzIMJIZQQwYI6iovNB9C_roA3OrMBWoDXpGiQK_r4rszwL0gjm239DZe21DKf3jTFiiJcOIBkx_xz31O3o3Ntr5Htr0YZ2FQhHn_LFesTEtxDhLJNoc09DVlrPTC4qFSVZmJ_hdKJmA/s320/Website-Featured-Image-Template-3.png" width="320" /></a></div><p><br /></p>The Scottish Drugs Death Taskforce has called for more resources to be spent fighting Scotland's drug-related deaths problem after calling current resource levels "<i>woefully inadequate</i>". Their report (21 July 2022) outlines ten key principles and 20 recommendations underpinned by 139 actions. These call for greater funding, efforts to tackle the stigma of drug addiction, and a higher degree of responsibility for drug-related deaths in both health boards and Scottish and UK governments. The report states, <i>"The First Minister has publicly recognised that her government 'took their eye off the ball'. The question now is whether the government will provide targeted funding to enable services to deliver transformational change – not a return to the funding of the past, but an ambitious and radical commitment to making people's lives better."</i><p></p><p>While there is a case to review the UK Misuse of Drugs Act and for devolving the legislation, we must focus on what we can do in Scotland using devolved powers. As the former head of Scotland's drug deaths taskforce (Professor Catriona Morrison) has said, Scottish Government ministers should stop blaming Westminster legislation for the high number of people dying through drug misuse and focus on what can be done to address the problem. </p><p>Scottish Government cuts in funding for Alcohol and Drug Partnerships in 2015 resulted from the pervasive stigma and the demonisation of people with a drug problem. Cutting £15 million of funding for the most marginalised and vulnerable people in Scotland is a classic example of ignoring the benefits of preventative spending as recommended by the Christie Commission. Scotland's drug strategy should focus first on keeping people alive, but we also need to help not just to stabilise their drug use but get help with the wider aspects of people's lives.</p><p>Paul Sweeney's Bill is not a 'magic solution' but could help as part of a range of measures. Drug consumption facilities have been introduced in at least 14 countries across more than 130 sites. They provide a safe environment for the most vulnerable to use drugs under the supervision of trained professionals. A study in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(22)00038-X/fulltext" target="_blank">The Lancet</a> shows fatal overdoses decreased in areas where overdose prevention centres were introduced alongside other beneficial outcomes, including reductions in self-reported high-risk injecting practices and increased engagement with drug treatment services. They may also help reduce drug use in public places.</p><p>This Bill will provide a necessary focus on the drug crisis that has sadly been missing in recent years. It also focuses on what we can do now, in Scotland, to address these issues - always recognising that the drugs crisis is part of wider inequalities in Scotland that also need to be tackled.</p><div><br /></div>Dave Watsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02001339406583991407noreply@blogger.com0