Happy New Year. Well we must live in hope!
For Scotland there will be no shortage of events. The
Commonwealth Games, 700th anniversary of Bannockburn, the Ryder Cup and First
World War centenary commemorations, all in the one year. Oh, and the small matter
of a referendum on Independence.
While Scottish politics will be dominated by the referendum, I
would argue for a different focus. That's because whatever the referendum
outcome, it will make little immediate difference to the lives of most Scots suffering
under the yoke of austerity economics. Challenging that should be our main
focus.
Workers have experienced the longest real wage pay squeeze since
1870 - with inflation rising faster than wages for almost 43 months. This means
that any perceived recovery cannot last if it relies on consumers using their
savings or going into debt. One in six of us borrowed this year to buy food and
presents at Christmas and most of us will take until June to pay it off.
Osborne might think a quick housing boom will get him past the
2015 election, but that's typical of the short term thinking that our
unbalanced, finance driven economy crashed on. I see that one bank has even
resuscitated the Leveraged Super Senior Synthetic Collateralised Debt
Obligations. Yes, a bit much for New Year's Day, but in essence it's one of
those dodgy financial instruments that caused the financial crash. Bankers,
bailed out by the rest of us, have learned nothing!
Britain needs a pay rise and astonishingly, even the CBI agrees.
In the 1960's up to 61% of the economy went on wages - since the 1980s it has
never gone above 56%. This may look like a small percentage, but it makes a big
difference to our living standards. It’s no coincidence that for the first
time we have more in-work poverty than out-of-work poverty. So in 2014, we must
relentlessly make the case for fair wages and UNISON's 'Worth It' campaign will
be an important part of that effort.
Another Osborne objective is to cut our public services - back to
1948 levels as the recent OBR forecast highlighted. Permanent austerity was
always the real policy aim, with deficit reduction simply an excuse. Again, we
are beginning to win the argument, as this week's You Gov poll shows. That poll
also found just 2 per cent of people said they have benefited from growth while
only 18 per cent expect to see their living standard increase in 2014.
I would also like to see us do more with devolved powers in 2014,
as well as make the case for extended devolution. The Procurement Reform Bill
is an opportunity to put the £11bn of public procurement to better
use - expanding the living wage, raising employment standards and tackling
climate change. We could also sort out local government finance, end the
disgraceful way we care for elderly people and take a proper look at public
service reform, including a national workforce strategy.
It won't be high on many people's priorities, but let's not
forget the European elections. There are so many areas of public policy that
are driven from the EU that we ignore this at our peril.
Finally, that referendum. As I have written elsewhere, I think
there has been some positive aspects to the debate amongst the dross. The work
funded by ESRC and others has provided a better understanding of social and
economic policy that has a value well beyond the referendum.
On the current offer, I remain an independence sceptic. I
understand the politics of the independence lite strategy, but it risks a
response of, why bother. The consequences of the currency plan, energy markets
and other policy areas, where little is going to change, are that we end up
with the worst of both worlds. Directed by a larger neighbour, without any
democratic influence.
However, that doesn't excuse the status quo. The No campaign has
focused on the many weaknesses in the White Paper offer, but it has failed to
make the positive case. I am a socialist, I don't believe in the status quo.
Our profoundly unequal society has to be challenged for the good of everyone in
Scotland and the rest of the UK. Constitutional change isn't the only way to
address these issues, but it can be part of the solution. If the status quo is
all that's on offer, I may be prepared to forgo my scepticism.
2014 will undoubtedly be a big and challenging year in so many ways.
Let's keep a focus on what really matters - enjoy the big events and welcome
those who visit our country, but also relentlessly campaign for a fairer
Scotland.
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