Pension Investment Conference

 I spent some time at the Pensions UK Investment conference in Edinburgh this week. I still do some consultancy work in the sector, and I am the Chair of a pension fund investment committee. Held during Trump’s war (sorry, ‘operation’; Have I heard that before somewhere?) against Iran, there were a few nervous delegates. However, pension fund investors take a long-term view, and most funds are in pretty good shape. In particular, the much-derided Defined Benefit (DB) schemes.

It is a busy time for pension schemes, with global volatility driven by Trump’s impact on the global economy before the current conflict, the risk of an AI bubble bursting, and significant changes to pension regulation in the UK.

Responsible investing (ESG) has faced increased scrutiny, especially from political sources in the US. The sector was never fully enthusiastic about it, and many fund managers and benchmarks have a noticeable tendency towards greenwashing. However, if the conflict in Iran teaches us anything, it’s that the push towards Net Zero is fundamentally correct. The more we invest in renewables, the more we enhance our domestic energy security. There was a broad political consensus on this until the Tories and Reform Ltd diverted in a Trumpian direction. At the conference, Caroline Lucas wiped the floor with Michael Gove in a debate; Gove, who was once part of that consensus, offered less-than-convincing reasons for his shift. The conference delegates reaffirmed that pension funds should do more to address climate change. Caroline emphasised that, particularly for young people, it makes no sense to invest in ways that harm the planet.

The pensions minister, Torsten Bell, was the keynote speaker. He has had a longer tenure than most pension ministers (not that’s saying a lot), and long may that continue. He is overseeing the biggest pension reform in a generation, and it is long overdue. He made a strong case for issues such as the consolidation of pension funds and UK investment, as well as the actions the government is taking to support them. The English Local Government Pension Scheme is rapidly consolidating its pooling arrangements. Sadly, the Scottish scheme is not reforming at all. We used to lead the way, but now we are stuck in a rut at the expense of effective investment and costs. The minister was asked about this and gave the tactful reply that devolution should be about learning from each other!

There were a few sessions on UK and place-based pension fund investment. An agenda is progressing in England, but much less so in Scotland. It is vital that more of our pension funds invest in the UK economy, where we live and work. Pursuing global investment returns is fine, but we all want to retire into a functioning economy and communities with a high quality of life. There are many examples of good local investment that also generate decent returns. In fact, overseas pension funds are investing in UK infrastructure, so why can’t we? One example is social and affordable housing, which provides stable, long-term investment opportunities that match the stable returns pension funds seek. I did some work on this with Scottish housing associations, which would be a win-win for them and pension funds. There has been some use of this in Scotland, but nowhere near the scale seen elsewhere. Declaring a housing crisis is all very well, but some action would be better.

It's encouraging to see such a bold pension reform in the UK. Some in the sector advocate for a slower approach, but I would encourage the minister to move more rapidly. I also wish we were as bold in Scotland regarding reserved pension policy.

The Good Society

 I was at an event last year where I was asked to list three books that have most influenced my thinking. One of those was The Spirit Level (2009) by Professor Richard Wilkinson and Professor Kate Pickett. 

The Spirit Level sounded the alarm on the corrosive effects of economic injustice. At a time when only a few academics were exploring this issue, it provided a comprehensive analysis linking the negative effects of inequality to a wide range of social ills. It revolutionised the way we looked at, measured and understood the impacts of inequality. Fifteen years on, its warnings ring truer than ever, exacerbated by years of austerity. The authors have published a report, "The Spirit Level at 15, " which highlights many of these issues.

Kate Pickett has also written a new book, The Good Society, which takes her analysis to the present day.

She starts with a (long) definition of a good society. Essentially, a society where everyone's physical and mental health is as good as it could be, by focusing on levelling inequality. Prevention before cure and ensuring the wellbeing of future generations. If those are not your priorities, you will struggle with this book. She argues that society is not improving because a few people are becoming fabulously rich. Tackling poverty and inequality benefits our society as a whole.

This is a book of two halves, not just because I read it on a long train journey to a football match! The first half outlines the blueprints for a good society, focusing on health, care, education, the environment, and justice. The second half explains how to build a good society.

As you would expect, almost every argument is referenced with evidence, and often illustrated with real-world examples. For example, in the city I was born in, Liverpool, half of the children born in 2009 and 2010 had been referred to children’s services by the time they were five. Many of her facts come from well-resourced, government-commissioned reports, with comprehensive recommendations that are repeatedly scuppered by another election, and put on a shelf to gather dust. A story we know only too well in Scotland, with the Christie Commission being just one pertinent example of this theme. Like The Spirit Level, it draws on international examples to show that another world is possible. 

Her solutions are not simply about income, vital though that is, but about engagement. She suggests participatory budgeting,  citizen assemblies and the strengthening of trade unions, alongside a National Institute for Social Change, for “ongoing proper assessment of the effectiveness of proposed social policies, their cost effectiveness”, so that the “then government could act on those things”. Where I part company with her is on the establishment of 'National' services for everything, unless they are limited to frameworks.

In interviews, Pickett has been critical of the incoming Labour government, "Given their mandate for change, I think they could and should have been bolder and faster.” New reviews are fine "unless they sit on the shelf, gathering dust, like so many other government reviews." It would be hard to disagree with that. Jonathan Portes has criticised the book as a "whistle-stop tour of the greatest hits of progressive social policy." Yes, there could be more depth, but that would make the book unreadable and just another report gathering dust on the shelf. The purpose of a book like this is to educate and inspire. On some of his specific criticisms, such as the evidence on Universal Basic Income, he has a point.

It is inevitable that a follow-up book will not be as influential as the original. However, it is important that the case for tackling inequality is refreshed. And this book does just that.

Scottish Budget 2026-27 - patch and mend

 The Scottish Government has published its draft budget for the coming year. I wrote a pre-budget briefing for the Jimmy Reid Foundation outlining the challenges facing the Finance Secretary. I also penned an opinion piece in The National, setting out what I, and Tax Justice Scotland, hoped to see in the Budget. The extra cash in the UK budget meant that the Scottish Government could patch and mend the Scottish Budget this year - at least for resource funding. However, the looming deficit means that we need to start putting Scotland’s finances on a sustainable footing. We need a longer-term view, particularly on tax. 

"We’ve patched, postponed, pretended. Now Scotland must choose: keep letting services quietly crumble, or invest properly in the people and places that make this country tick. That requires an open debate on our willingness to pay for the country we want. And the really big question is whether, in an election year, our politicians are willing to have it."

God loves an optimist, but hoping for tough choices in an election year was probably too much to ask for. Not unlike the UK Budget, what we got was patch-and-mend. This is my quick take.

Not that there are no welcome patches. Breakfast clubs, a bit for housing and college funding; not enough, but some relief for a hard-pressed sector that has been discriminated against for years. The Scottish Living Wage for social care workers is always welcome, but it will take more than that to address staff shortages in the sector. Equally important, there is little sign that the government understands the link between social care and hospital capacity, as set out in yesterday's SHA survey and Audit Scotland report. The increase in the Child Payment is welcome, if insufficient, and at least demonstrates a willingness to address child poverty.

The capital budget is struggling, although, in fairness, this largely reflects the Scottish Government's inadequate borrowing powers. Promises to deliver projects long into the future will convince no one. A two per cent 'real-terms' increase in council funding will hardly touch the sides of the demands on local government services, so difficult tax decisions have just been outsourced to councils. This chart from the SFC highlights the problem. 

There are also some positive tax measures. Taxing private jet departures is something many of us have argued for. Raising the thresholds on basic and intermediate income tax rates retains the progressivity of the Scottish approach and allows the government to claim that 55% of Scots will pay less income tax than the rest of the UK, sustainable or not. The Scottish version of the Mansion Tax won't raise much revenue (nothing next year), and it is a long way from the Council Tax reform the SNP promised as far back as 2007. More patch and mend there. 

Instead of a proper review of business rates and the weak Small Business Bonus scheme, we have another patch, unlikely to satisfy many on either side of this debate. And £1.5bn savings from public service reform - that will be right! The Scottish Fiscal Commission's forecasts don't make great reading either, on the economy, tax, or public finances.

SFC, "Overall, the additional funding available to the Scottish Government for both resource and capital relative to June 2025 is small compared to the size of the Budget and the scale of the fiscal challenges identified by the Scottish Government in its MTFS in June 2025." If the wishful thinking reform savings don't materialise, and most are from health and social care, this could get very serious. As the SFC says, "The progress towards achieving these targets for recurring savings to date, and the number of health boards not breaking even, suggest that it could be challenging for the Scottish Government to deliver the efficiency savings it has incorporated into the Health and Social Care portfolio spending plans."

Overall, this is a classic election-year budget. A few eye-catching sweeteners, a little cash spread around to placate as many people as possible, and promises of great things in years to come. The tough decisions are deferred to the next government.

Water and wastewater reform

 Let’s talk about water and wastewater. A subject that is rarely discussed in Scotland for two main reasons. Firstly, it rains a lot, so we don’t think there is a water scarcity issue. Secondly, with a public water service, we have avoided the shambles of the privatised system in England and Wales. However, both of these assumptions are misleading.

While we are better placed in terms of water use than many countries (2 million people worldwide die annually due to water-related causes), water scarcity is a growing problem, particularly in the east of Scotland. The chart below shows that half the population will face water scarcity by 2050, with drought conditions occurring every 3 years instead of every 20. The population is rising (13% p.a.), we have large rural areas that often rely on poor private supplies, and there is growing industrial demand caused by developments, including large data centres.

In response to this, we need to use water more efficiently. Water consumption in Scotland is higher than in other European countries, partly driven by cultural assumptions about abundant water and by very limited household metering. 

Scottish Water has a big investment programme (£886m last year) to strengthen the ageing water and wastewater infrastructure. However, this is only 40 per cent of the need, so they prioritise. There is also the cost legacy of the Private Finance Initiative (£170m p.a.). New household design developments are increasing water run-off, with 2300 properties at risk of sewer flooding (up 60% by 2050). Scottish Water has limited monitoring of outflows compared with England, although progress is being made.

To reduce investment costs, we need to use water more efficiently. That includes reusing water as recommended by a World Bank report. This could save 50-80 litres of water a day in a typical household. We also need to invest in green infrastructure (green roofs, permeable pavements and retaining gardens), mandating some of these through the planning system. Modern data and computer models make this more achievable. All of this requires replacing the outdated legislation, as the EU is currently doing. The Scottish Government has consulted on this, but progress has been glacial.

That leaves reforming our current public service structure. I set out much of this in a paper for the STUC, based on research commissioned by the University of Strathclyde. This essentially involves abolishing the costly and unnecessary regulatory model, which is identical to the failed English model. As the recent scandals have highlighted, the Water Industry Commission is no longer fit for purpose, if it ever was. This model has also driven the stealth privatisation of Scottish Water, which now has 400 private contractors (2,000 staff) delivering around half the service. Some 45 per cent of wastewater treatment was privatised using PFI, and the entirely unnecessary non-household marketisation has created additional costs for businesses. 

A public service model would enable a better industrial relations approach, with a worker director and a partnership structure based on the NHS Scotland model. It is hardly surprising that Scottish Water increasingly looks like a failing English water company (with managerial bonuses to match), when most of its board comes from the privatised sector. There is also a case for greater decentralisation, including better community engagement on water solutions. 

As a country, we need to better understand the issues surrounding water and wastewater, and a Citizens’ Assembly approach might help. We may be in a better position than England and Wales, but that won’t last much longer unless we act now.

Keep Britain Working

 Keep Britain Working is the final report of the Mayfield Review into the issues surrounding ill-health and disability in the workplace. Earlier this year, I wrote, with Ian Tasker of Scottish Hazards, a paper for the Jimmy Reid Foundation, Tackling the Causes of Working Age Ill Health, covering similar ground.

We share a common understanding of the problem. As the report says, "Over one in five working-age adults are out of the workforce, substantially because of health problems. Mental ill-health among young people is rising sharply. Older workers are leaving too early. Disabled people remain locked out of work at twice the rate of non-disabled people." It is also true that other countries do better. 

We also have common ground in diagnosing the problem. He found three persistent problems:

• a culture of fear, that is felt by employees and, differently, by employers, especially line managers. This creates distance between people and discourages safe and early disclosure, constructive conversations and support just when they are needed most
• a lack of an effective or consistent support system for employers and their employees in managing health and tackling barriers faced by disabled people. This lack of support is sometimes compounded by a ‘fit note’ system that is not working as intended
• structural challenges for disabled people, creating barriers to starting and staying in work. Compared to international comparators, the UK lacks systemic levers to support disabled people in work, leaving them disproportionately excluded and talent wasted.

The Mayfield solution is "a fundamental shift from a model where health at work is largely left to the individual and the NHS, to one where it becomes a shared responsibility between employers, employees and health services." This includes a recognition that employers need to do more. This was the core message in our paper. Sadly, the Mayfield Review paints too rosy a picture of existing occupational health provision. As we pointed out, very few employers (as low as 3%) invest in the wider range of services that occupational health professionals can provide. For too many employers, the solution to ill health at work is increasingly punitive absence management systems and dismissal. The review also almost entirely ignores the role of safety in the workplace and cuts to the HSE.

The Healthy Working Cycle recommended in the report is fine, as far as it goes. The major failing in the report is the lack of a structural change to ensure it actually happens. His solution is "the development of a Workplace Health Provision (WHP) which is built from the range of existing provision but looks to amplify, expand and improve the availability of it."

The report's delivery option is "a flexible, market-led solution, with employers funding the provision and choosing certified providers that meet their needs. Providers will be assessed against national standards – possibly stewarded by government – giving employers access to a wide range of trusted options." There is very little stick and a marginal carrot in this solution, other than "Over time we would expect that this provision would be formalised and certified." The question any reasonable person would ask is, when we look at where we have got to under the current arrangements, what makes you think employers and their totally inadequate occupational health providers will change?

I don't disagree that employers should fund improved occupational health, as it is their statutory duty, albeit one that is little enforced. However, we recommended "An integrated approach to working-age health, underpinned by including occupational health and vocational rehabilitation in mainstream health care, which no longer relies on inadequate private sector providers." This could be funded in a similar way to the Apprenticeship Levy, which ensures that all employers, regardless of their performance, contribute.

The Mayfield Review claims its changes are ambitious. Sadly, they fall well short of that. Having correctly diagnosed the problem, their recommendations are a hope that employers will change their ways. The cultural change that is needed should have a statutory underpinning; otherwise, in another ten years, we will be asking the same questions, with thousands more workers excluded from work due to ill health. The taxpayer will be picking up the bill, with economic growth a pipe dream.

Defending Democracy

 I was speaking at an EIS conference last Saturday on the challenges facing our democracy. It prompted me to examine the evidence more closely.

Democracy

Let’s start with the state of our democracy. Polling by NCSR highlights the scale of the challenge. They conclude, ‘All in all, it appears that people’s trust in governments and politicians, and confidence in their systems of government is as low now as it has ever been over the last fifty years, if not lower.’

Similar polling by ERS found that a massive three-quarters (76%) of the public feel that politics needs to improve significantly. Lower for Tory voters, higher for Reform voters, and the average for Labour, Lib Dems, and SNP. Politicians command lower levels of public confidence than members of any other profession, even estate agents! This is particularly unfair. I have dealt with hundreds of politicians over the years, and very few meet the ‘in it for themselves’ stereotype. They may get it wrong, but their motives are generally positive. Having said that, I do think the professionalisation of politics is a problem. It shouldn’t be a career in the traditional sense, and politicians should gain broader experience before seeking elected office.

One consequence of declining trust is an increase in support for electoral reform. Sixty per cent now favour changing the UK electoral system to proportional representation, with only 36% opposed. This represents a notable shift over the past few years. Here's a worrying statistic: Reform could secure a majority in Westminster with just 30% of the vote. 

Another shift in my lifetime has been the decline of voting differences by social class. Age is now the biggest dividing line. However, those who believe young people will save us may be indulging in wishful thinking. A University of Glasgow survey found 63% of young people believe democracy is ‘in trouble’ while 27% say they’d rather live in a dictatorship. In Spain, 40% of men aged 18 to 34 report planning to vote for Vox, a far-right party.

There is also little comfort to be had in Scottish exceptionalism. There are slight differences in polling on progressive policies, but it isn’t huge. At least on economic issues, Scotland remains socially conservative.  Even on immigration, 56% of Scottish voters think it is too high. And that’s even though the Scottish economy and public services would suffer significantly without immigration. There is some comfort in the fact that actual voting is more progressive so far.

This isn't just a Scottish or British issue. Oppressive and often violent authoritarian forces have successfully tipped the international order in their favour in many countries, exploiting both the advantages of non-democratic systems and the weaknesses in ailing democracies.

Disinformation

So, what’s behind this shift in attitudes towards liberal democracy? There are economic reasons, including a fall in real wages and a drop in the standard of living. However, you only need to listen to the irritating vox pop interviews on the TV to realise that disinformation is widespread. 

It begins with basic misinformation, such as questions about which services are devolved. I wasn’t brave enough to blame teachers at an EIS conference, and my wife was a modern studies teacher. Like the attainment gap, these issues are societal in nature, and schools cannot address them alone. When even mainstream (supposedly neutral) broadcasters like the BBC uncritically promote Reform, it’s unfair to place the blame solely on schools.

Disinformation is nothing new, but social media has made it easier to spread inaccurate information widely. Research shows that people may be more likely to believe disinformation if it aligns with their existing beliefs, triggers an emotional response, originates from a trusted source, or if they encounter it repeatedly. Believing in conspiracy theories is not a harmless eccentricity. It signals a fundamental failure of judgment. People who embrace such beliefs show they cannot evaluate sources, weigh evidence, or think critically about the world around them.

Disinformation is actually encouraged by the ’reward systems’ on social media. A Yale University study found that the issue was systemic, not just individual. Fact-checking has been largely abandoned by technology companies, citing freedom of speech, even when it involves dangerous disinformation on topics like vaccines. As President Macron says, "We have been incredibly naive in entrusting our democratic space to social networks that are controlled either by large American entrepreneurs or large Chinese companies, whose interests are not at all the survival or proper functioning of our democracies."

Countries are adopting different strategies, including regulation (Digital Service Legislation), countering bots (in California), robust public information schemes (UN Verify), and fact-checking (BBC Verify or The Ferret in Scotland). A free and diverse media is also vital, as is fostering digital literacy in schools. A University of Birmingham study found that 9- to 11-year-olds can be taught to help identify fake news.

Political Parties

Political parties have adopted one of three strategies: ignore, adversarial, or co-option. A European study showed a tendency towards what they called ‘responsiveness’ while remaining aligned with the party’s policy goals. The UK Labour Party has been adopting this approach, despite polls indicating that its voters are shifting to left-wing parties, rather than Reform Ltd. However, for social democratic centre-left parties, academic research is clear: do not move towards the populist radical right on policy.

What is clear is that strong policy arguments alone are insufficient. This can be somewhat discouraging for think tank directors like me! Policy effectiveness is not the same as democratic legitimacy, ‘voice of the people’, or the strategies adopted by the far-right. Politicians like Trump and Farage see blatant lies as a legitimate strategy. 

I have drafted two political party manifestos and contributed to many more. There is an inherent conservatism in their approach, believing that people vote against policies, not for them. The problem is that they sound bland and say nothing that connects with the real-world experiences of voters. Today, I attended the Tax Justice Scotland conference, and the responses from the political panel were generally predictable. The traditional economic analysis by the IFS, OBR, and Fiscal Commission tends to reinforce this groupthink. I disagree with Richard Murphy that all parties are the same, but there are some common themes.

Conclusion

In conclusion, a problem exists, and democracy is in danger. Disinformation is a key issue that must be addressed alongside new strategies to tackle the challenges faced by Western democracies. Political parties have yet to develop an adequate response, and civil society more broadly must step up and be part of the solution.

Making Defence an Engine for Growth

 Following the publication of its new Defence Strategy, the UK Government has now released its Defence Industrial Strategy, titled 'Making Defence an Engine for Growth'. 

This is undoubtedly the most significant defence policy reform in decades, and something many of us have argued for. In 2023, I wrote a paper for Prospect on defence procurement in which I concluded, 

“Without a thriving defence industry, the UK puts at risk its freedom to act in defence of the country’s interests at home and abroad. And the armed forces risk losing their technological advantage over actual and potential enemies. Achieving these aims requires a commitment to sustain and strengthen national defence design, manufacturing and support capabilities in a partnership between the MoD and industry. The UK by default.”

At the Westminster launch of the paper, the then shadow minister said a future Labour Government would prioritise sovereign capacity in defence procurement. So, how does the new strategy match up?

There is to be a 10-year Defence Investment Plan, although we will have to wait a few months for the details. This is vital, as defence industrial capacity cannot be switched on and off quickly. The sector needs certainty, and the commitment to increase defence spending to 2.6% of GDP by 2027, with a trajectory towards 3% in the next parliament, and 5% by 2035, is also vital to the strategy. 

The priority outcomes all tick the right boxes:

1. Making Defence an Engine for Growth

2. Backing UK-based businesses

3. Positioning the UK at the leading edge of defence innovation 

4. Developing a resilient UK industrial base

5. Transforming procurement and acquisition systems

6. Forging new and enduring partnerships

The strategy promises £250 million of public funds for the creation of five new “Defence Growth Deals” in the UK. Investment will initially be provided in Plymouth, South Yorkshire, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Ministry of Defence spending already provides more than 11,000 jobs in Scotland, and the UK Government hopes these growth deals will 'unleash potential' from businesses and research institutions in Scotland. This is in addition to the £10 billion deal, which will see warships for the Norwegian navy built in Glasgow, and possibly more from Denmark.

In structural terms, they have established a new partnership with the industry, through the Defence Industrial Joint Council, with a welcome involvement of trade unions and other stakeholders, beyond the usual suspects. This places a strong emphasis on people and skills, something that was previously lacking in strategies. 

The details of procurement reform are less clear. The Procurement Act enables many of the recommendations outlined in my 2023 paper, including direct awards and the consideration of social value in procurement. This is something the Scottish Government needs to act on. The Scottish procurement legislation predates Brexit and is in urgent need of reform. However, it remains to be seen whether the segmented approach to procurement and the tighter timescales will be successfully implemented. There is more work to be done here. I would also have liked to see more on Fair Work and other local procurement benefits.

There is also a bit of spin on the concept of ‘military Keynesianism’. I think we should be cautious about this, as jobs and other economic spin-offs are simply a welcome by-product. Different forms of public spending deliver higher economic multipliers. Increasing defence spending is necessary given the threat from Russia and Trump's foreign policy. It therefore makes sense to maximise the economic benefits from this necessity, rather than suggesting it is the best way to drive growth.

Overall, this new strategy is moving in the right direction, but there is still more work to be done.