Defending Democracy

 I was speaking at an EIS conference last Saturday on the challenges facing our democracy. It prompted me to examine the evidence more closely.

Democracy

Let’s start with the state of our democracy. Polling by NCSR highlights the scale of the challenge. They conclude, ‘All in all, it appears that people’s trust in governments and politicians, and confidence in their systems of government is as low now as it has ever been over the last fifty years, if not lower.’

Similar polling by ERS found that a massive three-quarters (76%) of the public feel that politics needs to improve significantly. Lower for Tory voters, higher for Reform voters, and the average for Labour, Lib Dems, and SNP. Politicians command lower levels of public confidence than members of any other profession, even estate agents! This is particularly unfair. I have dealt with hundreds of politicians over the years, and very few meet the ‘in it for themselves’ stereotype. They may get it wrong, but their motives are generally positive. Having said that, I do think the professionalisation of politics is a problem. It shouldn’t be a career in the traditional sense, and politicians should gain broader experience before seeking elected office.

One consequence of declining trust is an increase in support for electoral reform. Sixty per cent now favour changing the UK electoral system to proportional representation, with only 36% opposed. This represents a notable shift over the past few years. Here's a worrying statistic: Reform could secure a majority in Westminster with just 30% of the vote. 

Another shift in my lifetime has been the decline of voting differences by social class. Age is now the biggest dividing line. However, those who believe young people will save us may be indulging in wishful thinking. A University of Glasgow survey found 63% of young people believe democracy is ‘in trouble’ while 27% say they’d rather live in a dictatorship. In Spain, 40% of men aged 18 to 34 report planning to vote for Vox, a far-right party.

There is also little comfort to be had in Scottish exceptionalism. There are slight differences in polling on progressive policies, but it isn’t huge. At least on economic issues, Scotland remains socially conservative.  Even on immigration, 56% of Scottish voters think it is too high. And that’s even though the Scottish economy and public services would suffer significantly without immigration. There is some comfort in the fact that actual voting is more progressive so far.

This isn't just a Scottish or British issue. Oppressive and often violent authoritarian forces have successfully tipped the international order in their favour in many countries, exploiting both the advantages of non-democratic systems and the weaknesses in ailing democracies.

Disinformation

So, what’s behind this shift in attitudes towards liberal democracy? There are economic reasons, including a fall in real wages and a drop in the standard of living. However, you only need to listen to the irritating vox pop interviews on the TV to realise that disinformation is widespread. 

It begins with basic misinformation, such as questions about which services are devolved. I wasn’t brave enough to blame teachers at an EIS conference, and my wife was a modern studies teacher. Like the attainment gap, these issues are societal in nature, and schools cannot address them alone. When even mainstream (supposedly neutral) broadcasters like the BBC uncritically promote Reform, it’s unfair to place the blame solely on schools.

Disinformation is nothing new, but social media has made it easier to spread inaccurate information widely. Research shows that people may be more likely to believe disinformation if it aligns with their existing beliefs, triggers an emotional response, originates from a trusted source, or if they encounter it repeatedly. Believing in conspiracy theories is not a harmless eccentricity. It signals a fundamental failure of judgment. People who embrace such beliefs show they cannot evaluate sources, weigh evidence, or think critically about the world around them.

Disinformation is actually encouraged by the ’reward systems’ on social media. A Yale University study found that the issue was systemic, not just individual. Fact-checking has been largely abandoned by technology companies, citing freedom of speech, even when it involves dangerous disinformation on topics like vaccines. As President Macron says, "We have been incredibly naive in entrusting our democratic space to social networks that are controlled either by large American entrepreneurs or large Chinese companies, whose interests are not at all the survival or proper functioning of our democracies."

Countries are adopting different strategies, including regulation (Digital Service Legislation), countering bots (in California), robust public information schemes (UN Verify), and fact-checking (BBC Verify or The Ferret in Scotland). A free and diverse media is also vital, as is fostering digital literacy in schools. A University of Birmingham study found that 9- to 11-year-olds can be taught to help identify fake news.

Political Parties

Political parties have adopted one of three strategies: ignore, adversarial, or co-option. A European study showed a tendency towards what they called ‘responsiveness’ while remaining aligned with the party’s policy goals. The UK Labour Party has been adopting this approach, despite polls indicating that its voters are shifting to left-wing parties, rather than Reform Ltd. However, for social democratic centre-left parties, academic research is clear: do not move towards the populist radical right on policy.

What is clear is that strong policy arguments alone are insufficient. This can be somewhat discouraging for think tank directors like me! Policy effectiveness is not the same as democratic legitimacy, ‘voice of the people’, or the strategies adopted by the far-right. Politicians like Trump and Farage see blatant lies as a legitimate strategy. 

I have drafted two political party manifestos and contributed to many more. There is an inherent conservatism in their approach, believing that people vote against policies, not for them. The problem is that they sound bland and say nothing that connects with the real-world experiences of voters. Today, I attended the Tax Justice Scotland conference, and the responses from the political panel were generally predictable. The traditional economic analysis by the IFS, OBR, and Fiscal Commission tends to reinforce this groupthink. I disagree with Richard Murphy that all parties are the same, but there are some common themes.

Conclusion

In conclusion, a problem exists, and democracy is in danger. Disinformation is a key issue that must be addressed alongside new strategies to tackle the challenges faced by Western democracies. Political parties have yet to develop an adequate response, and civil society more broadly must step up and be part of the solution.